Match Info

EFL Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Emirates Stadium (London)

Referee: Attwell S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Arsenal		Crystal Palace

	1	X	2
	1.46	4.33	6.25	Watch
	1.6	3.9	5.5
	1.5	4.25	6.4	Watch
	1.62	4.09	5.65
	1.55	4.38	6.43	Watch
	1.44	4	6
	1.52	4.44	6.82	Watch
	1.47	4.5	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.56)	4.24 ↑ (4.07)	6.21 ↑ (6.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal
62.4%

Draw
22.4%

Crystal Palace
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

23.4%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

22.8%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Crystal Palace has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

The ML Model estimate for Crystal Palace aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.5%	5.1%	3.4%

Arsenal - Crystal Palace Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - Arsenal (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (54 of 59 users predict this - 91.53%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.43% – 98.63%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (24 of 26 users predict this - 92.31%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 25 - 92.6%). Crystal Palace (votes: 2 - 7.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 12. Timber J. 2. Saliba W. 33. Calafiori R. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 10. Eze E. 16. Norgaard C. 23. Merino M. (C) 20. Madueke N. 9. Gabriel Jesus 11. Martinelli G.	44. Benitez W. (G) 23. Canvot J. 5. Lacroix M. 6. Guehi M. (C) 26. Richards C. 8. Lerma J. 20. Wharton A. 3. Mitchell T. 9. Nketiah E. 10. Pino Y. 14. Mateta J.
Substitutes
14. Gyökeres V. 22. Nwaneri E. 8. Odegaard M. 1. Raya D. (G) 41. Rice D. 7. Saka B. 89. Salmon M. 19. Trossard L. 36. Zubimendi M.	17. Clyne N. 55. Devenny J. 86. Drakes-Thomas J. 21. Esse R. 1. Henderson D. (G) 19. Hughes W. 42. Rodney K. 24. Sosa B. 12. Uche C.
Coaches
Arteta M.	Glasner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Nketiah E. ↓, Devenny J. ↑,
46', Canvot J. ↓, Clyne N. ↑,
59', Martinelli G. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
67', Eze E. ↓, Odegaard M. ↑,
67', Madueke N. ↓, Saka B. ↑,
75', Richards C. ↓, Hughes W. ↑,
80', 1 - 0, Lacroix M. (Own goal),
86', Gabriel Jesus ↓, Rice D. ↑,
86', Pino Y. ↓, Uche C. ↑,
89', Arrizabalaga K. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 1, Guehi M. ⚽, Lerma J. (A),
90+11', Mitchell T. ↓, Sosa B. ↑,
Penalties (8 - 7)
1, Odegaard M. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Mateta J. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Rice D. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Devenny J. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Saka B. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Hughes W. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Trossard L. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Sosa B. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Merino M. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Lerma J. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Calafiori R. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Wharton A. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Timber J. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Uche C. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Lacroix M. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Saliba W. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 4.

Arsenal is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Crystal Palace has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Crystal Palace may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Arsenal is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Arsenal: Dowman M. (Ankle Injury) Havertz K. (Knee Injury) Mosquera C. (Ankle Injury) White B. (Injury)

There will not play in Crystal Palace: Cardines R. (Muscle Injury) Doucoure C. (Knee Injury) Kamada D. (Hamstring Injury) Kporha C. (Back Injury) Munoz D. (Knee Injury) Riad C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Gabriel (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Arsenal will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 44:26. (average 2.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 27:13. (average 2.5:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
20.12.25	Everton - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Arsenal - Wolverhampton Wanderers	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Club Brugge - Arsenal	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Aston Villa - Arsenal	2:1 ✺
03.12.25	Arsenal - Brentford	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWWLW
- Crystal Palace
English Premier League
20.12.25	Leeds United - Crystal Palace	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Crystal Palace - KuPS Kuopio	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
14.12.25	Crystal Palace - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Shelbourne - Crystal Palace	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
07.12.25	Fulham - Crystal Palace	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
26.10.25	Arsenal - Crystal Palace	1:0
23.04.25	Arsenal - Crystal Palace	2:2
21.12.24	Crystal Palace - Arsenal	1:5
English League Cup
18.12.24	Arsenal - Crystal Palace	3:2
English Premier League
20.01.24	Arsenal - Crystal Palace	5:0
21.08.23	Crystal Palace - Arsenal	0:1
19.03.23	Arsenal - Crystal Palace	4:1

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