Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: Herczeg A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Leeds United		Crystal Palace

	1	X	2
	1.65	4.00	5.00
	1.65	4.10	4.80
	1.68	3.95	4.90
	1.70	4.10	5.35
	1.78	3.95	4.64	Watch
	1.67	4.00	5.30
	1.70	4.05	4.83	Watch
	1.64	4.20	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (2.08)	4.04 ↑ (3.5)	5 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
57%

Draw
23.8%

Crystal Palace
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

27.2%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

27%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leeds United's performance.

Crystal Palace has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Crystal Palace might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leeds United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crystal Palace than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crystal Palace could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	8.9%	4.4%

Leeds United - Crystal Palace Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Crystal Palace (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.75) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.73) (votes: 89%) ⭐ Best Value.

BTTS - Leeds & Yes (3.40) (votes: 78%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Leeds United will win (39 of 45 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.74% – 96.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Leeds United will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Crystal Palace (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trafford J. (G) 24. Justin J. 30. Elvedi N. 5. Muharemovic T. 2. Bogle J. 18. Stach A. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 22. Tanaka A. 3. Gudmundsson G. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 19. Okafor N.	44. Benitez W. (G) 26. Richards C. 17. Tomiyasu T. 6. Canvot J. 25. Khalaili A. 23. Timber Q. 20. Wharton A. (C) 3. Mitchell T. 18. Kamada D. 10. Pino Y. 22. Larsen J.
Substitutes
11. Aaronson B. 23. Bahoya J. 26. Bard M. 15. Bijol J. 44. Gruev I. 7. James D. 8. Longstaff S. 14. Nmecha L. 16. Zetterer M. (G)	33. Chilwell B. 28. Doucoure C. 8. Lerma J. 31. Matthews R. (G) 11. McNeil D. 30. Mingueza O. 9. Nketiah E. 24. Osorio D. 7. Sarr I.
Coaches
Farke D.	Sage P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Bogle J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Tomiyasu T. ↓, Lerma J. ↑,
62', Tanaka A. 🟨,
64', Wharton A. 🟨,
67', Bogle J. ↓, James D. ↑,
67', Tanaka A. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
76', Okafor N. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
81', Pino Y. 🟨,
82', Larsen J. ↓, Nketiah E. ↑,
82', Pino Y. ↓, Sarr I. ↑,
90+2', Gudmundsson G. ↓, Bahoya J. ↑,
90+3', Lerma J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 1.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Leeds could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Crystal Palace has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this matchup, Leeds is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Leeds: Joseph M. (Knee Injury) Rodon J. (Muscle Injury) Wilson H. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Crystal Palace: Disasi A. (Red Card) Henderson D. (Foot Injury) Mateta J. (Hamstring Injury) Riad C. (Knee Injury).

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Leeds has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:16 (averaging 1.4:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Leeds against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 10:7 goals (averaging 2:1.4 per game).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Leeds: 0.58% Crystal Palace: 0.13%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7:3	4	9
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6:11	-5	4

Last Results with these Odds

Leeds United - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 45.86%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English Premier League
14.09.26	Leeds United - Newcastle United	4:1 ✺
English League Cup
09.09.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	6:3 ✺
English Premier League
05.09.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Leeds United - Brentford	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WLTTW
- Crystal Palace
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Crystal Palace - Lech Poznań	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
12.09.26	Crystal Palace - Ipswich Town	2:3 ✺
English League Cup
08.09.26	Crystal Palace - Middlesbrough	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
05.09.26	Fulham - Crystal Palace	2:3 ✺
28.08.26	Crystal Palace - Manchester City	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
15.03.26	Crystal Palace - Leeds United	0:0
20.12.25	Leeds United - Crystal Palace	4:1
09.04.23	Leeds United - Crystal Palace	1:5
09.10.22	Crystal Palace - Leeds United	2:1
Club Friendly
22.07.22	Crystal Palace - Leeds United	1:1
English Premier League
25.04.22	Crystal Palace - Leeds United	0:0
30.11.21	Leeds United - Crystal Palace	1:0

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