Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 13

Date: 7 November 2025, Friday

Location: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca (Ascoli Piceno)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia


	Ascoli		Gubbio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.8	3.15	4.65
	1.81	3.16	5.11
	1.55	3.86	5.84	Watch
	1.78	3.04	4.76	Watch
	1.5	3.65	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.55)	3.37 ↓ (3.7)	5.17 ↓ (5.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ascoli
54.7%

Draw
27.4%

Gubbio
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

24.8%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

23.9%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ascoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Gubbio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ascoli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gubbio than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ascoli - Gubbio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Ascoli will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitale S. (G) 23. Alagna M. 30. Curado M. 33. Rizzo N. 2. Pagliai G. 4. Damiani S. 62. Milanese T. 7. Silipo A. 25. Rizzo Pinna A. 15. D'Uffizi S. 35. Gori G.	1. Bagnolini N. (G) 23. Bruscagin M. 5. Di Bitonto A. 15. Signorini A. (C) 34. Zallu F. 21. Carraro F. 82. Djankpata H. 27. Podda L. 44. Hraiech S. 77. Minta A. 19. La Mantia A.
Substitutes
24. Bando A. 46. Barosi D. (G) 41. Brzan R. (G) 9. Chakir M. A. 80. Corradini G. 27. Cozzoli F. 17. Guiebre A. 19. Menna D. 6. Ndoj E. 11. Oviszach E. 28. Palazzino F. 60. Zagari R.	4. Baroncelli L. 78. Conti V. 40. Costa G. 10. Di Massimo A. 17. Fazzi N. 73. Ghirardello T. 12. Krapikas T. (G) 80. Niang O. 8. Rosaia G. 9. Tommasini C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Milanese T. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Carraro F. ⚽,
35', Bruscagin M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Podda L. ↓, Rosaia G. ↑,
57', (Pen),
70', La Mantia A. ↓, Tommasini C. ↑,
75', Pagliai G. ↓, Guiebre A. ↑,
75', Minta A. ↓, Di Massimo A. ↑,
78', Milanese T. ↓, Chakir M. A. ↑,
82', Bruscagin M. ↓, Fazzi N. ↑,
82', Djankpata H. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
87', Fazzi N. 🟨,
88', Silipo A. ↓, Palazzino F. ↑,
89', Rizzo Pinna A. ↓, Ndoj E. ↑,
90+4', Damiani S. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/8~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ascoli won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ascoli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ascoli is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Ascoli won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:7. (average 0.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ascoli won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
02.11.25	Ravenna - Ascoli	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
29.10.25	Sambenedettese - Ascoli	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
26.10.25	Ascoli - Sambenedettese	1:0 ✺
20.10.25	Carpi - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	Ascoli - Pontedera	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWTW
- AS Gubbio 1910
Italian Serie C Group B
02.11.25	Gubbio - Ternana	3:3 ✺
25.10.25	Carpi - Gubbio	0:3 ✺
18.10.25	Gubbio - Guidonia Montecelio	0:2 ✺
10.10.25	Arezzo - Gubbio	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Gubbio - Pontedera	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
05.04.25	Gubbio - Ascoli	0:0
24.11.24	Ascoli - Gubbio	1:0
Coppa Italia Serie C
11.08.24	Ascoli - Gubbio	2:1
Club Friendly
11.08.18	Gubbio - Ascoli	1:1
Italian Serie C Group B
14.03.15	Gubbio - Ascoli	2:2
26.10.14	Ascoli - Gubbio	2:2
Italian Lega Pro C1/B
27.04.14	Gubbio - Ascoli	1:0

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