Match Info

Premier League - Round 16

Date: 3 July 2026, Friday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Karabaev S. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Astana		Zhenis

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.78	3.40	3.80
	1.62	3.65	4.85	Watch
	1.61	3.68	4.73
	1.61	3.77	5.01	Watch
	1.57	3.6	4.6
	1.64	3.76	5.32	Watch
	1.61	3.5	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.64)	3.62 ↑ (3.25)	4.72 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Astana
55.6%

Draw
25.1%

Zhenis
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

27%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

25.6%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Astana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Zhenis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zhenis than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	14.3%	7.1%

Astana - Zhenis Predictions

Users Predictions: Astana will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Condric J. (G) 2. Bartolec K. 5. Kazukolovas K. 3. Kalaica B. 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 21. Merkel A. 7. Karaman D. 10. Tomasov M. 81. Karimov R. 47. Abrayev M. 72. Basmanov S.	41. Plotnikov M. (G) 5. Tevzadze Z. 63. Saravanja I. 8. Khaseyn M. 14. Saulet A. 7. Kuat I. 88. Martins G. 3. Kpozo P. 19. Adilio 93. Elder Santana 9. Naumets V.
Substitutes
20. Ahanonu N. 4. Anuarov S. 9. Islamkhan B. 57. Kaltanov A. 99. Karpikov D. (G) 74. Seysen M. (G) 77. Shomko D. 91. Token A.	17. Adilov A. 72. Askarov M. 97. Besengaliyev Y. 11. Filipovic A. 18. Madelkhan B. 77. Shanshar N. (G) 1. Sotnik I. (G) 13. Tursynbay S.
Coaches
Babayan G.	Aliyev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Abrayev M. ⚽, Karaman D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kpozo P. ↓, Askarov M. ↑,
47', Tomasov M. 🟨,
50', Karimov R. 🟨,
56', Saulet A. 🟨,
61', Naumets V. ↓, Filipovic A. ↑,
63', Tevzadze Z. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Astana won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Astana is considered a favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Astana won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Astana won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

FC Astana: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42:25	17	48
8	Zhenis	26	8	8	10	26:32	-6	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
28.06.26	Zhenis - Astana	2:2 ✺
21.06.26	Aktobe - Astana	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0 ✺
27.05.26	Altai Semey - Astana	1:1 ✺
22.05.26	Astana - Ulytau	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLWTW
- FC Zhenis
Kazakh Premier League
28.06.26	Zhenis - Astana	2:2 ✺
20.06.26	Zhenis - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Ulytau - Zhenis	2:1 ✺
28.05.26	Zhenis - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0 ✺
23.05.26	Yelimay Semey - Zhenis	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
28.06.26	Zhenis - Astana	2:2
23.08.25	Zhenis - Astana	3:2
24.05.25	Astana - Zhenis	4:2
Kazakh Cup
14.05.25	Zhenis - Astana	2:1 penalties
Kazakh League Cup
23.11.24	Zhenis - Astana	0:2 ET
Kazakh Premier League
29.09.24	Zhenis - Astana	1:1
Kazakh Cup
13.04.24	Zhenis - Astana	0:1

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