Match Info

Premier League - Round 12

Date: 28 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Sulikanov S. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Sport+


	Zhenis		Kaspiy Aktau

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.62	3.6	4.95	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5.14
	1.63	3.61	5.08	Watch
	1.65	3.3	5
	1.64	3.67	5.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.96)	3.56 ↑ (3.28)	5.14 ↑ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zhenis
56.3%

Draw
25.8%

Kaspiy Aktau
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

28.1%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27.1%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zhenis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Zhenis's performance.

Kaspiy Aktau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kaspiy Aktau might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zhenis than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Zhenis that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaspiy Aktau than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kaspiy Aktau could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	10%	6.7%

Zhenis - Kaspiy Aktau Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Zhenis will win (25 of 30 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.99% – 96.67%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Plotnikov M. (G) 4. Bystrov M. 5. Tevzadze Z. 63. Saravanja I. 13. Tursynbay S. 52. Merkel A. 7. Kuat I. 72. Askarov M. 19. Adilio 9. Lobjanidze E. 45. Iyede S.	24. Zhomart D. (G) 21. Aripov D. 14. Amaral A. 23. Nabikhanov A. 19. Taykenov M. 13. Serikbay M. 5. Strumia L. 10. Umaev I. 7. Kabylan B. 11. Ndombasi N. 99. Gustavo Franca
Substitutes
17. Adilov A. 93. Elder Santana 30. Gorobchenko N. 21. Kamaradinov B. 8. Khaseyn M. 18. Madelkhan B. 14. Saulet A. 1. Sotnik I. (G) 23. Ulshin A.	8. Armenov A. 1. Ayazbaev N. (G) 29. Bekmyrza A. 67. Berdibek D. 55. Elemes N. 18. Kucheriavyi M. 28. Petrovic B. 15. Serikbay A.
Coaches
Aliyev A.	Shoytymov E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Aripov D. 🟨,
12', Strumia L. 🟨,
26', Bystrov M. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Iyede S. ⚽, Lobjanidze E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Lobjanidze E. 🟨,
52', Lobjanidze E. ↓, Elder Santana ↑,
70', Kabylan B. ↓, Kucheriavyi M. ↑,
70', Aripov D. ↓, Serikbay A. ↑,
70', Gustavo Franca ↓, Berdibek D. ↑,
75', Serikbay M. ↓, Bekmyrza A. ↑,
77', Askarov M. ↓, Saulet A. ↑,
79', Merkel A. 🟨,
84', Kucheriavyi M. ↓, Armenov A. ↑,
90', Bystrov M. ↓, Adilov A. ↑,
90', Iyede S. ↓, Ulshin A. ↑,
90+1', Nabikhanov A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Zhenis is considered a favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Zhenis	26	8	8	10	26:32	-6	32
10	Kaspij Aktau	26	8	5	13	27:36	-9	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Zhenis
Kazakh Premier League
23.05.26	Yelimay Semey - Zhenis	2:1 ✺
17.05.26	Zhenis - Kairat	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Cup
13.05.26	Zhenis - Kyzylzhar	2:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
09.05.26	Zhetysu - Zhenis	2:3 ✺
03.05.26	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LLWWW
- FC Kaspiy Aktau
Kazakh Premier League
22.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Ertis Pavlodar	2:2 ✺
16.05.26	Ulytau - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Yelimay Semey - Kaspiy Aktau	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
30.04.26	Ordabasy - Kaspiy Aktau	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.8 TLWWL

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