Match Info

Serie A - Round 13

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo)

Referee: Marcenaro M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Atalanta		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.9	5.25	Watch
	1.68	3.95	4.95	Watch
	1.68	4	5.7
	1.68	4.05	4.79	Watch
	1.71	4.11	5.32
	1.63	3.8	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.68)	3.97 ↑ (3.97)	5.28 ↑ (5.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
57.6%

Draw
24.2%

Fiorentina
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

24.1%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

19.6%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atalanta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.1%	14.7%	13.2%

Atalanta - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 67 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 48 - 71.6%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 9 - 13.4%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 14.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atalanta: 60.8% – 82.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Fiorentina (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Atalanta (1.88) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atalanta will win (25 of 31 users predict this - 80.65%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 35 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 27 - 77.1%). Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 11.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 11.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 3. Kossounou O. 4. Hien I. 19. Djimsiti B. 16. Bellanova R. 15. De Roon M. (C) 13. Ederson 77. Zappacosta D. 17. De Ketelaere C. 9. Scamacca G. 11. Lookman A.	43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 18. Mari P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 7. Sohm S. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
69. Ahanor H. 47. Bernasconi L. 44. Brescianini M. 23. Kolasinac S. 90. Krstovic N. 70. Maldini D. 6. Musah Y. 8. Pasalic M. 31. Rossi F. (G) 10. Samardzic L. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 7. Sulemana K. 59. Zalewski N.	15. Comuzzo P. 9. Dzeko E. 29. Fortini N. 10. Gudmundsson A. 60. Kouadio E. 99. Kouame C. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 30. Martinelli T. (G) 27. Ndour C. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 24. Richardson A. 26. Viti M.
Coaches
Palladino R.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Kossounou O. ⚽, De Ketelaere C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 2 - 0, Lookman A. ⚽,
59', Pongracic M. 🟨,
64', Fagioli N. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
64', Dodo ↓, Fortini N. ↑,
67', Zappacosta D. ↓, Zalewski N. ↑,
67', Ederson ↓, Pasalic M. ↑,
69', Mari P. 🟨,
71', Mandragora R. 🟨,
75', Mari P. ↓, Comuzzo P. ↑,
77', Scamacca G. ↓, Krstovic N. ↑,
77', Lookman A. ↓, Sulemana K. ↑,
79', Piccoli R. ↓, Richardson A. ↑,
79', Sohm S. ↓, Ndour C. ↑,
84', Hien I. 🟨,
86', Hien I. ↓, Kolasinac S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 13 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 2.

Recent performances by Atalanta have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fiorentina's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Atalanta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Atalanta has had a series of away games.

In this match, Atalanta is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Atalanta: Bakker M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Atalanta: Scalvini G. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Dodo (Injury) Gosens R. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 35:32. (average 1.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Atalanta won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:15. (average 2.3:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Atalanta - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 56.98%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Atalanta	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.11.25	Napoli - Atalanta	3:1 ✺
09.11.25	Atalanta - Sassuolo	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Atalanta	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
01.11.25	Udinese - Atalanta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLLWL
- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Fiorentina - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.11.25	Fiorentina - Juventus	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Genoa - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Mainz - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.11.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
30.03.25	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1:0
15.09.24	Atalanta - Fiorentina	3:2
02.06.24	Atalanta - Fiorentina	2:3
Coppa Italia
24.04.24	Atalanta - Fiorentina	4:1
03.04.24	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1:0
Italian Serie A
17.09.23	Fiorentina - Atalanta	3:2
17.04.23	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1:1

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