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Atalanta vs Fiorentina Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, November 30, 2025)

Match Info

Serie A - Round 13

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo)

Referee: Marcenaro M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 6
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV4
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 3
Tajikistan	Futbol TV
Tanzania	ZBC 2 Tanzania
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 5
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, VTVcab


	Atalanta		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.9	5.25	Watch
	1.68	3.95	4.95	Watch
	1.68	4	5.7
	1.68	4.05	4.79	Watch
	1.71	4.11	5.32
	1.63	3.8	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.68)	3.97 ↑ (3.97)	5.28 ↑ (5.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
57.6%

Draw
24.2%

Fiorentina
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

24.1%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

19.6%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atalanta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.1%	14.7%	13.2%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 67 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 48 - 71.6%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 9 - 13.4%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 14.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atalanta: 60.8% – 82.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Fiorentina (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Atalanta (1.88) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atalanta will win (25 of 31 users predict this - 80.65%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 35 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 27 - 77.1%). Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 11.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 11.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 3. Kossounou O. 4. Hien I. 19. Djimsiti B. 16. Bellanova R. 15. De Roon M. (C) 13. Ederson 77. Zappacosta D. 17. De Ketelaere C. 9. Scamacca G. 11. Lookman A.	43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 18. Mari P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 7. Sohm S. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
69. Ahanor H. 47. Bernasconi L. 44. Brescianini M. 23. Kolasinac S. 90. Krstovic N. 70. Maldini D. 6. Musah Y. 8. Pasalic M. 31. Rossi F. (G) 10. Samardzic L. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 7. Sulemana K. 59. Zalewski N.	15. Comuzzo P. 9. Dzeko E. 29. Fortini N. 10. Gudmundsson A. 60. Kouadio E. 99. Kouame C. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 30. Martinelli T. (G) 27. Ndour C. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 24. Richardson A. 26. Viti M.
Coaches
Palladino R.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Kossounou O. ⚽, De Ketelaere C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 2 - 0, Lookman A. ⚽,
59', Pongracic M. 🟨,
64', Fagioli N. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
64', Dodo ↓, Fortini N. ↑,
67', Zappacosta D. ↓, Zalewski N. ↑,
67', Ederson ↓, Pasalic M. ↑,
69', Mari P. 🟨,
71', Mandragora R. 🟨,
75', Mari P. ↓, Comuzzo P. ↑,
77', Scamacca G. ↓, Krstovic N. ↑,
77', Lookman A. ↓, Sulemana K. ↑,
79', Piccoli R. ↓, Richardson A. ↑,
79', Sohm S. ↓, Ndour C. ↑,
84', Hien I. 🟨,
86', Hien I. ↓, Kolasinac S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 13 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 2.

Recent performances by Atalanta have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fiorentina's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Atalanta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Atalanta has had a series of away games.

In this match, Atalanta is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Atalanta: Bakker M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Atalanta: Scalvini G. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Dodo (Injury) Gosens R. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 35:32. (average 1.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Atalanta won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:15. (average 2.3:1.5).

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Last Results with these Odds

Atalanta - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 56.98%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Atalanta	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.11.25	Napoli - Atalanta	3:1 ✺
09.11.25	Atalanta - Sassuolo	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Atalanta	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
01.11.25	Udinese - Atalanta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLLWL
- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Fiorentina - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.11.25	Fiorentina - Juventus	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Genoa - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Mainz - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.11.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
30.03.25	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1:0
15.09.24	Atalanta - Fiorentina	3:2
02.06.24	Atalanta - Fiorentina	2:3
Coppa Italia
24.04.24	Atalanta - Fiorentina	4:1
03.04.24	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1:0
Italian Serie A
17.09.23	Fiorentina - Atalanta	3:2
17.04.23	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1:1

Atalanta - Fiorentina: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide