Match Info

Serie A - Round 10

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fiorentina		Lecce

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.75	3.7	4.95	Watch
	1.58	4.00	5.84	Watch
	1.72	3.58	5.93
	1.68	3.65	5.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.78)	3.69 ↑ (3.52)	5.5 ↑ (5.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
56.7%

Draw
25.9%

Lecce
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

27.2%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

26.6%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	19.3%	7%

Fiorentina - Lecce Predictions

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 42 - 75%). Lecce will win (votes: 3 - 5.4%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 19.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 63.7% – 86.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Fiorentina (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (12 of 16 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Lecce (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 27. Ndour C. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 44. Fagioli N. 29. Fortini N. 9. Dzeko E. 20. Kean M.	30. Falcone W. (G) 17. Veiga D. 44. Tiago Gabriel 4. Gaspar K. 25. Gallo A. 29. Coulibaly L. 20. Ramadani Y. 10. Berisha M. 19. Banda L. 9. Stulic N. 7. Tete Morente
Substitutes
22. Fazzini J. 10. Gudmundsson A. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 8. Mandragora R. 18. Mari P. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 24. Richardson A. 7. Sohm S.	22. Camarda F. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 14. Helgason T. J. 77. Kaba M. 21. Kouassi C. 93. Maleh Y. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Ndri K. 50. Pierotti S. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 5. Siebert J. 23. Sottil R.
Coaches
Pioli S.	Di Francesco E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Nicolussi Caviglia H. 🟨,
15', Fagioli N. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Berisha M. ⚽,
41', Veiga D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ndour C. ↓, Sohm S. ↑,
46', Fagioli N. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
46', Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↓, Mandragora R. ↑,
59', Dzeko E. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
66', Kean M. 🟨,
73', Banda L. ↓, Pierotti S. ↑,
76', Berisha M. ↓, Maleh Y. ↑,
77', Comuzzo P. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
87', Ranieri L. 🟨,
89', Stulic N. ↓, Camarda F. ↑,
89', Tete Morente ↓, Kaba M. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 3.

Fiorentina is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Lecce has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lecce may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fiorentina is the team to beat.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Viti M. (Red Card)

There will not play in Lecce: Jean G. (Knee Injury) Marchwinski F. (Knee Injury) Perez M. (Illness) Pierret B. (Thigh Injury) Rafia H. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Gosens R. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:8. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
29.10.25	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
26.10.25	Fiorentina - Bologna	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Rapid Wien - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
19.10.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Fiorentina - Roma	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTWLL
- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
28.10.25	Lecce - Napoli	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	Udinese - Lecce	3:2 ✺
18.10.25	Lecce - Sassuolo	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Parma - Lecce	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Lecce - Bologna	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
28.02.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	1:0
20.10.24	Lecce - Fiorentina	0:6
02.02.24	Lecce - Fiorentina	3:2
27.08.23	Fiorentina - Lecce	2:2
19.03.23	Fiorentina - Lecce	1:0
17.10.22	Lecce - Fiorentina	1:1
15.07.20	Lecce - Fiorentina	1:3

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