Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 6 November 2025, Thursday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Visser L. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 7, New World Sport App
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 4
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech-republic	Sport 3
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 11
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 3
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	Disney+
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 11
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 15, Blue Sport 15
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Mainz		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.25	3.5
	2.18	3.25	3.55
	2.2	3.27	3.68
	2.32	3.24	3.13	Watch
	2.23	3.38	3.5
	2.2	3.2	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.41)	3.27 ↑ (3.13)	3.43 ↑ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
43%

Draw
29.2%

Fiorentina
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

29.9%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

29.7%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.9%	13%	13%

Mainz - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 17 - 73.9%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 56% – 91.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 50%). Fiorentina (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Fiorentina (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Fiorentina (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Fiorentina (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Zentner R. (G) 48. Potulski K. 21. da Costa D. 31. Kohr D. 2. Mwene P. 10. Amiri N. (C) 15. Maloney L. 24. Kawasaki S. 8. Nebel P. 44. Weiper N. 11. Sieb A.	30. Martinelli T. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 18. Mari P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 7. Sohm S. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 27. Ndour C. 29. Fortini N. 22. Fazzini J. 91. Piccoli R.
Substitutes
33. Batz D. (G) 37. Bobzien B. 14. Boving W. 42. Gleiber D. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 17. Hollerbach B. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 9. Nordin A. 1. Riess L. (G) 6. Sano K. 22. Veratschnig N. 30. Widmer S.	15. Comuzzo P. 43. de Gea D. (G) 9. Dzeko E. 44. Fagioli N. 20. Kean M. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 8. Mandragora R. 65. Parisi F. 24. Richardson A. 26. Viti M.
Coaches
Henriksen B.	Galloppa D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Sohm S. ⚽, Piccoli R. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Mwene P. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
48', Maloney L. 🟨,
50', Ndour C. 🟨,
59', Ndour C. ↓, Mandragora R. ↑,
59', Piccoli R. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
60', Maloney L. ↓, Sano K. ↑,
60', Sieb A. ↓, Lee Jae-Sung ↑,
62', Nebel P. 🟨,
63', Mari P. 🟨,
65', Nebel P. ↓, Hollerbach B. ↑,
67', Amiri N. 🟨,
68', 1 - 1, Hollerbach B. ⚽, Lee Jae-Sung (A),
69', Mari P. ↓, Comuzzo P. ↑,
81', Amiri N. ↓, Boving W. ↑,
85', Sohm S. ↓, Fagioli N. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Sano K. (A),

Preview

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Recently, Mainz has had a series of home games.

Mainz could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Mainz: Bos K. (Inactive) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Leitsch M. (Illness) Tauer N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Gosens R. (Muscle Injury) Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Sabiri A. (Inactive)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
01.11.25	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
29.10.25	Mainz - Stuttgart	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
26.10.25	Stuttgart - Mainz	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Mainz - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLWL
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
02.11.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	0:1 ✺
29.10.25	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
26.10.25	Fiorentina - Bologna	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Rapid Wien - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
19.10.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLTWL

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