Match Info

Serie A - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan)

Referee: Chiffi D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3, Max Sport 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport Open Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Net4+
Indonesia	Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Discovery+, TV12, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN, DAZN UK, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+, SiriusXM FC
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football


	Milan		Napoli

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.9	Watch
	2.12	3.35	3.55	Watch
	2.08	3.39	4.01
	1.74	3.00	6.43	Watch
	2.17	3.38	3.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.59)	3.28 ↓ (3.32)	4.35 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milan
48.1%

Draw
29.6%

Napoli
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

28.7%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

29%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Milan's performance.

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Napoli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Napoli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38%	24%	38%

Milan - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Milan will win (votes: 19 - 38%). Napoli will win (votes: 19 - 38%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 24%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 24.5% – 51.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 9 - 40.9%). Napoli (votes: 9 - 40.9%). Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Napoli (2.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Milan (3.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Milan (1.24) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - draw (4.69) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

DNB - Napoli (3.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 11 - 40.7%). Napoli (votes: 12 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Maignan M. (C) 23. Tomori F. 46. Gabbia M. 31. Pavlovic S. 56. Saelemaekers A. 19. Fofana Y. 14. Modric L. 12. Rabiot A. 2. Estupinan P. 7. Gimenez S. 11. Pulisic C.	1. Meret A. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 35. Marianucci L. 5. Juan Jesus 3. Gutierrez M. 68. Lobotka S. 21. Politano M. 99. Anguissa F. 11. De Bruyne K. 8. McTominay S. 19. Hojlund R.
Substitutes
24. Athekame Z. 33. Bartesaghi D. 5. De Winter K. 10. Leao R. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 18. Nkunku C. 27. Odogu D. 37. Pittarella M. (G) 4. Ricci S. 1. Terracciano P. (G)	69. Ambrosino G. 31. Beukema S. 7. David Neres 20. Elmas E. 25. Ferrante M. (G) 6. Gilmour B. 70. Lang N. 27. Lucca L. 30. Mazzocchi P. 32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 26. Vergara A.
Coaches
Allegri M.	Conte A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Saelemaekers A. ⚽, Pulisic C. (A),
31', 2 - 0, Pulisic C. ⚽, Fofana Y. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Estupinan P. 🟥,
59', Pulisic C. ↓, Bartesaghi D. ↑,
60', 2 - 1, De Bruyne K. (Pen),
68', Saelemaekers A. ↓, Athekame Z. ↑,
69', Gimenez S. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
72', De Bruyne K. ↓, Elmas E. ↑,
73', Hojlund R. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
73', McTominay S. ↓, David Neres ↑,
77', Politano M. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
80', Tomori F. ↓, De Winter K. ↑,
80', Fofana Y. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
90', Rabiot A. 🟨,
90+3', Lobotka S. ↓, Gilmour B. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Milan won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Milan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Milan will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Milan: Jashari A. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Napoli: Buongiorno A. (Thigh Injury) Contini N. (Hand Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Olivera M. (Injury) Rrahmani A. (Thigh Injury) Spinazzola L. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: Mazzocchi P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Milan won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:22. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Milan won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.6:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Milan
Coppa Italia
23.09.25	Milan - Lecce	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.09.25	Udinese - Milan	0:3 ✺
14.09.25	Milan - Bologna	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Lecce - Milan	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Milan - Cremonese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWWL
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
22.09.25	Napoli - Pisa	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Manchester City - Napoli	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
13.09.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Napoli - Cagliari	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Sassuolo - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
30.03.25	Napoli - Milan	2:1
29.10.24	Milan - Napoli	0:2
11.02.24	Milan - Napoli	1:0
29.10.23	Napoli - Milan	2:2
UEFA Champions League
18.04.23	Napoli - Milan	1:1
12.04.23	Milan - Napoli	1:0
Italian Serie A
02.04.23	Napoli - Milan	0:4

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