Match Info

Serie A - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Chiffi D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 3, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, ZAP
Albania	20:45	Tring Sport 1
Angola	19:45	Z Sports 2
Argentina	15:45	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	22:45	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	04:45	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Azerbaijan	22:45	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	15:45	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	21:45	Max Sport 3, Max Sport 4
Canada	14:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
China	02:45	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	13:45	ESPN
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	21:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	20:45	Sport 2
Denmark	20:45	TV2 Play
Europe	—	Go3 Sport Open Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	21:45	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	20:45	DAZN France
Georgia	22:45	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	20:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	21:45	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong Kong	02:45	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	20:45	Net4+
Indonesia	01:45	Vidio
Iran	22:15	IRIB Varzesh
Israel	21:45	Sport 1
Italy	20:45	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:45	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	00:45	Setanta Sports 1
Macao	02:45	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	02:45	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	20:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	12:45	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	21:45	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	20:45	Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	07:45	beIN Connect
Norway	20:45	VG+
Peru	13:45	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	19:45	Sport TV2
Romania	21:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	21:45	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	21:45	STC TV
Serbia	20:45	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 1
South America	—	ESPN South
South Korea	03:45	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	20:45	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:45	Discovery+, TV12, TV4 Play
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	23:45	Setanta Sports 1
Turkey	21:45	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	23:45	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	19:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN, DAZN UK, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+, SiriusXM FC
Uzbekistan	23:45	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	01:45	ON Football


	Milan		Napoli

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.9	Watch
	2.12	3.35	3.55	Watch
	2.08	3.39	4.01
	1.74	3.00	6.43	Watch
	2.17	3.38	3.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.59)	3.28 ↓ (3.32)	4.35 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milan
48.1%

Draw
29.6%

Napoli
22.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.8%

28.7%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

29%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Milan's performance.

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Napoli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Napoli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38%	24%	38%

Milan - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Milan will win (votes: 19 - 38%). Napoli will win (votes: 19 - 38%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 24%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 24.5% – 51.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 9 - 40.9%). Napoli (votes: 9 - 40.9%). Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Napoli (2.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Milan (3.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Milan (1.24) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - draw (4.69) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

DNB - Napoli (3.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 11 - 40.7%). Napoli (votes: 12 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Maignan M. (C) 23. Tomori F. 46. Gabbia M. 31. Pavlovic S. 56. Saelemaekers A. 19. Fofana Y. 14. Modric L. 12. Rabiot A. 2. Estupinan P. 7. Gimenez S. 11. Pulisic C.	1. Meret A. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 35. Marianucci L. 5. Juan Jesus 3. Gutierrez M. 68. Lobotka S. 21. Politano M. 99. Anguissa F. 11. De Bruyne K. 8. McTominay S. 19. Hojlund R.
Substitutes
24. Athekame Z. 33. Bartesaghi D. 5. De Winter K. 10. Leao R. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 18. Nkunku C. 27. Odogu D. 37. Pittarella M. (G) 4. Ricci S. 1. Terracciano P. (G)	69. Ambrosino G. 31. Beukema S. 7. David Neres 20. Elmas E. 25. Ferrante M. (G) 6. Gilmour B. 70. Lang N. 27. Lucca L. 30. Mazzocchi P. 32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 26. Vergara A.
Coaches
Allegri M.	Conte A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Saelemaekers A. ⚽, Pulisic C. (A),
31', 2 - 0, Pulisic C. ⚽, Fofana Y. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Estupinan P. 🟥,
59', Pulisic C. ↓, Bartesaghi D. ↑,
60', 2 - 1, De Bruyne K. (Pen),
68', Saelemaekers A. ↓, Athekame Z. ↑,
69', Gimenez S. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
72', De Bruyne K. ↓, Elmas E. ↑,
73', Hojlund R. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
73', McTominay S. ↓, David Neres ↑,
77', Politano M. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
80', Tomori F. ↓, De Winter K. ↑,
80', Fofana Y. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
90', Rabiot A. 🟨,
90+3', Lobotka S. ↓, Gilmour B. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Milan won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Milan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Milan will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Milan: Jashari A. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Napoli: Buongiorno A. (Thigh Injury) Contini N. (Hand Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Olivera M. (Injury) Rrahmani A. (Thigh Injury) Spinazzola L. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: Mazzocchi P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Milan won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:22. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Milan won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.6:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Milan
Coppa Italia
23.09.25	Milan - Lecce	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.09.25	Udinese - Milan	0:3 ✺
14.09.25	Milan - Bologna	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Lecce - Milan	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Milan - Cremonese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWWL
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
22.09.25	Napoli - Pisa	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Manchester City - Napoli	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
13.09.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Napoli - Cagliari	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Sassuolo - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
30.03.25	Napoli - Milan	2:1
29.10.24	Milan - Napoli	0:2
11.02.24	Milan - Napoli	1:0
29.10.23	Napoli - Milan	2:2
UEFA Champions League
18.04.23	Napoli - Milan	1:1
12.04.23	Milan - Napoli	1:0
Italian Serie A
02.04.23	Napoli - Milan	0:4

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