Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA - ROUND 9

Date: 6 October 2023, Friday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Referee: Garcia V. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Optus Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Cyprus	PrimeTel
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Finland	CMore, CMore MAX, CMore Sport
France	beIN Sports Max
Greece	Nova Sports
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	Prima Sport 3
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	Viaplay


	Athletic Bilbao		Almería

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.5	8	Watch
	1.33	5.5	8.5
	1.33	5.5	9.5	Watch
	1.33	5.5	8
	1.35	5.65	9.01
	1.3	5.5	9
	1.32	5.65	9.1	Watch
	1.35	5.6	9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.49)	5.55 ↑ (4.54)	8.76 ↑ (6.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
71.9%

Draw
17.2%

Almería
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.7%

20.9%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65%

20.5%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletic Bilbao's performance.

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletic Bilbao that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	1.5%	6.2%

Athletic Bilbao - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (60 of 65 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.83% – 98.79%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 18. de Marcos O. 3. Vivian D. 5. Alvarez Y. 17. Berchiche Y. 21. Herrera A. 14. Garcia D. 9. Williams I. 8. Sancet O. 11. Williams N. 12. Guruzeta G.	25. Maximiano L. (G) 24. Mendes H. 2. Kaiky 21. Chumi 15. Akieme S. 4. Baba I. 11. Melero G. 6. Lopy D. 10. Embarba A. 23. Kone I. 7. Ramazani L.
Substitutes
13. Agirrezabala J. (G) 29. Ares A. 7. Berenguer A. 19. Garcia de Albeniz I. 22. Garcia R. 30. Gomez U. 15. Lekue I. 10. Muniain I. 4. Paredes A. 24. Prados Diaz B. 20. Villalibre A.	19. Arribas S. 20. Centelles A. 14. Lazaro 12. Leo Baptistao 1. Marino D. (G) 13. Martinez F. (G) 29. Milovanovic M. 22. Montes C. 26. Pena M. 17. Pozo A. 8. Puigmal A. 34. Sanca M.
Coaches
Valverde E.	Lasarte A.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa Conference League (Qualification: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Athletic won 4.

Recent matches Athletic is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Almería is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Athletic is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Athletic: Nolaskoain P. (Knee Injury) Ruiz de Galarreta I. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Almería: Pubill M. (Injury) Suarez L. (Broken calfbone) Svidersky M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Athletic: Gomez U. (Muscle Injury) Vesga M. (Contusion)

There are questionable in Almería: Montes C. (Injury) Robertone L. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Athletic won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 15-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Athletic won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
30.09.23	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	3:0 ✺
27.09.23	Athletic Bilbao - Getafe	2:2 ✺
22.09.23	Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao	0:2 ✺
16.09.23	Athletic Bilbao - Cádiz	3:0 ✺
03.09.23	Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTWWT
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga
01.10.23	Almería - Granada	3:3 ✺
26.09.23	Sevilla - Almería	5:1 ✺
23.09.23	Almería - Valencia	2:2 ✺
17.09.23	Villarreal - Almería	2:1 ✺
01.09.23	Almería - Celta de Vigo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
22.04.23	Almería - Athletic Bilbao	1:2
30.09.22	Athletic Bilbao - Almería	4:0
21.03.15	Athletic Bilbao - Almería	2:1
25.10.14	Almería - Athletic Bilbao	0:1
18.05.14	Almería - Athletic Bilbao	0:0
11.01.14	Athletic Bilbao - Almería	6:1

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