Match Info

LaLiga - Round 20

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix (Palma de Mallorca)

Referee: Guzman J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Mallorca		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	3.8	3	2.15	Watch
	3.7	3.2	2.12	Watch
	3.73	3.1	2.19	Watch
	3.6	3	2.15
	3.91	3.09	2.22	Watch
	3.75	3.1	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.75 ↑ (3.7)	3.08 (3.08)	2.17 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mallorca
25.3%

Draw
30.8%

Athletic Bilbao
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

30.9%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

31.2%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mallorca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mallorca than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	33.3%	44.4%

Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Mallorca will win (votes: 8 - 22.2%). Athletic will win (votes: 16 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 28.2% – 60.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Mallorca (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Athletic (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Mallorca (2.01) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Mallorca (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Mallorca (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Athletic (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roman L. (G) 2. Morey Bauza M. 24. Valjent M. (C) 4. Kumbulla M. 3. Lato T. 5. Mascarell O. 12. Samu Costa 18. Joseph M. 10. Darder S. 17. Virgili J. 7. Muriqi V.	1. Simon U. (G) 12. Areso J. 3. Vivian D. 4. Paredes A. 17. Berchiche Y. (C) 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 18. Jauregizar M. 7. Berenguer A. 20. Gomez U. 10. Williams N. 11. Guruzeta G.
Substitutes
11. Asano T. 13. Bergstrom L. (G) 30. Kalumba J. 19. Llabres J. 27. Lopez D. 22. Mojica J. 25. Pichu Cuellar (G) 9. Prats A. 21. Raillo A. 26. Salhi I. 6. Sanchez A. 20. Torre P.	19. Boiro A. 2. Gorosabel A. 25. Izeta 15. Lekue I. 47. Monreal I. 23. Navarro R. 27. Padilla A. (G) 30. Rego A. 8. Sancet O. 44. Sanchez S. 9. Williams I.
Coaches
Arrasate J.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, Muriqi V. ⚽, Darder S. (A),
8', 1 - 1, Gomez U. ⚽, Guruzeta G. (A),
18', Kumbulla M. 🟨,
40', Vivian D. 🟨,
42', Muriqi V. (Penalty Awarded),
42', 2 - 1, Muriqi V. ⚽,
45', 2 - 2, Williams N. ⚽, Gomez U. (A),
45+5', Areso J. 🟨,
45+6', Guruzeta G. 🟨,
45+7', Ruiz de Galarreta I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Berenguer A. ↓, Williams I. ↑,
59', Gomez U. ↓, Sancet O. ↑,
69', 3 - 2, Muriqi V. (Penalty Awarded),
70', Guruzeta G. 🟨,
71', Gomez U. 🟥,
72', Williams N. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
72', Boiro A. 🟨,
72', Lekue I. 🟨,
73', Joseph M. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
73', Sancet O. 🟨,
76', Areso J. ↓, Gorosabel A. ↑,
76', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Izeta ↑,
83', Lato T. ↓, Mojica J. ↑,
83', Virgili J. ↓, Torre P. ↑,
90+3', Darder S. ↓, Llabres J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mallorca won 0.

Recent form of Mallorca has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Athletic has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mallorca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Athletic has had a series of away games.

Athletic could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Mallorca: Maffeo P. (Yellow Cards) Morlanes M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Laporte A. (Muscle Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury) Serrano N. (Muscle Injury) Vesga M. (Back Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Mallorca won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:21. (average 0.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mallorca won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 0.6:0.6).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Ath Bilbao: 0.47%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7:6	1	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RCD Mallorca
Spanish LaLiga
11.01.26	Rayo Vallecano - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Mallorca - Girona	1:2 ✺
19.12.25	Valencia - Mallorca	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.12.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Mallorca	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.12.25	Mallorca - Elche	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLTLW
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.01.26	Leonesa - Athletic Bilbao	3:4 ET ✺
Spanish Supercopa
07.01.26	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	5:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.01.26	Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
22.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
18.12.25	Ourense CF - Athletic Bilbao	0:1 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
04.10.25	Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca	2:1
09.03.25	Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca	1:1
28.10.24	Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao	0:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.04.24	Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca	2:1 penalties
Spanish LaLiga
02.02.24	Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca	4:0
03.09.23	Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao	0:0
01.05.23	Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao	1:1

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