Match Info

LaLiga - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Referee: Garcia V. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
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	Athletic Bilbao		Deportivo Alavés

	1	X	2
	1.60	3.90	5.75	Watch
	1.60	3.90	5.75
	1.60	3.95	5.60	Watch
	1.65	3.90	6.33
	1.68	3.85	5.2	Watch
	1.62	3.80	6.25
	1.62	3.95	5.82	Watch
	1.60	4.00	6.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.81)	3.91 ↑ (3.71)	5.84 ↑ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
59.1%

Draw
24.5%

Deportivo Alavés
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

26.5%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

28.1%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Deportivo Alavés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	13.6%	13.6%

Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). Alavés will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 58% – 94.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Alavés (4.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Alavés (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Athletic Club (1.67) (votes: 94%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 25%). Alavés (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 31. Louis-Jean J. 4. Paredes A. 14. Laporte A. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 18. Jauregizar M. 23. Navarro R. 8. Sancet O. 10. Williams N. 9. Williams I. (C)	1. Sivera A. (G) 14. Tenaglia N. 17. Jonny Otto 16. Koski V. 2. Valentini N. 21. Rebbach A. 23. Protesoni C. (C) 6. Guevara A. 19. Ibanez P. 15. Boye L. 9. Diaz M.
Substitutes
5. Alvarez Y. 12. Areso J. 7. Berenguer A. 28. Canales P. 25. Djalo A. 24. Gerenabarrena B. 13. Padilla A. (G) 6. Prados Diaz B. 20. Rego A. 15. Rincon H. 21. Sannadi M. 22. Serrano N.	10. Alena C. 8. Blanco A. 24. Diallo Selu M. 29. Hernandez I. 11. Martinez T. 12. Novoa Ramos H. 27. Olaiz X. 7. Perez A. 13. Rodriguez A. (G) 22. Rodriguez M. 4. Suarez D. 3. Yusi
Coaches
Terzic E.	Sanchez Flores Q.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Louis-Jean J. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
62', Williams I. ↓, Sannadi M. ↑,
62', Jauregizar M. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
65', Diaz M. ↓, Martinez T. ↑,
66', Rebbach A. ↓, Yusi ↑,
70', Sancet O. (Penalty Awarded),
71', Ruiz de Galarreta I. 🟨,
75', Boye L. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
75', Protesoni C. ↓, Blanco A. ↑,
85', Ibanez P. ↓, Alena C. ↑,
86', Berchiche Y. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
90+3', Areso J. 🟨,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 9th and 6th in the Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Athletic could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Athletic for this game.

Confirmed absences for Athletic: Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Vivian D. (Hamstring Injury).

Confirmed absences for Alavés: Garces F. (Suspended) Rodriguez M. (Ankle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Athletic: Canales P. (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Alavés: Manas A. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Athletic has recorded 8 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:15 (averaging 1.2:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Athletic against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with 14:5 goals (averaging 1.3:0.5 per game).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Ath Bilbao: 0.47% Alaves: 0.4%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11:6	5	11
10	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7:6	1	8

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Bilbao - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 54.37%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
12.09.26	Athletic Bilbao - Elche	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Celta de Vigo - Athletic Bilbao	0:2 ✺
27.08.26	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWWLL
- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga
15.09.26	Deportivo Alavés - Valencia	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Racing Santander - Deportivo Alavés	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Deportivo Alavés - Osasuna	5:2 ✺
28.08.26	Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
20.08.26	Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
02.05.26	Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao	2:4
13.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	0:1
Club Friendly
22.07.25	Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
Spanish LaLiga
11.05.25	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	1:0
15.12.24	Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
16.03.24	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	2:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.01.24	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	2:0

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