Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 8

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga (Goiânia)

Referee: Bellote L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Vila Nova		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.9	3	Watch
	2.8	2.8	2.6
	2.6	2.85	3
	2.71	2.82	3.18
	2.66	2.8	3.01	Watch
	2.9	2.8	2.62
	2.47	2.9	3.13	Watch
	2.6	2.85	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.6)	2.84 ↓ (3.13)	2.94 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Nova
35.2%

Draw
33%

Athletico Paranaense
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

30%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

29.8%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Vila Nova - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Vila Nova will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Halls (G) 2. Elias 3. Tiago Pagnussat (C) 4. Bernardo Schappo 13. Willian Formiga 18. Arilson 27. Igor Henrique 11. Dodo 29. Junior Todinho 9. Gabriel Poveda 77. Guilherme Parede	1. Mycael (G) 28. Habraao 4. Figueiredo T. 3. Leo 37. Esquivel L. 5. Felipinho 31. Raul 8. Giuliano 30. Tevis 27. Alan Kardec (C) 19. Luiz Fernando
Substitutes
19. Gabriel Silva 22. Gustavo Paje 16. Higor 6. Igor Inocencio 5. Joao Vieira 15. Miticov 8. Ralf 21. Ruan Ribeiro 1. Victor Hugo (G) 7. Vinicius Paiva 14. Walisson Maia	65. Arthur Dias 45. Belezi 11. Isaac 57. Joao Cruz 77. Kayke Ayrton 61. Leo Derik 14. Moraes K. 15. Peralta F. 70. Renan Peixoto 23. Santos (G) 7. Velasco K. 10. Zapelli B.
Coaches
Rafael Lacerda	Correia J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', Igor Henrique ↓, Miticov ↑,
13', 1 - 0, Bernardo Schappo ⚽, Guilherme Parede (A),
25', Habraao ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
33', 2 - 0, Gabriel Poveda ⚽, Tiago Pagnussat (A),
34', Luiz Fernando 🟨,
43', Figueiredo T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Guilherme Parede 🟨,
54', Alan Kardec ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,
55', Giuliano ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
55', Tevis ↓, Isaac ↑,
66', Junior Todinho ↓, Gustavo Paje ↑,
66', Guilherme Parede ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,
70', Felipinho 🟨,
77', 2 - 1, Zapelli B. (Pen),
79', Raul ↓, Moraes K. ↑,
79', Dodo ↓, Joao Vieira ↑,
79', Arilson ↓, Walisson Maia ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 10).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Athletico PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Vila Nova: Bruno Mendes (Inactive) Davis E. (Knee Injury) Emerson Urso (Inactive) Jean Mota (Inactive) Junior Todinho (Inactive) Labandeira F. (Inactive) Mauricio Kozlinski (Inactive)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Dudu Kogitzki (Inactive) Leozinho (Inactive)

There are questionable in Vila Nova: Guilherme Parede (Knee Injury) Lucas Sena (Inactive) Marcondes (Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
14.05.25	Remo - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
06.05.25	Athletic Club - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Cruzeiro - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
25.04.25	Vila Nova - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Vila Nova - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWLWW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie B
08.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
04.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo SP	1:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Brusque - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
24.04.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Athletico Paranaense - CRB Maceio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLTLW

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