Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 16

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena da Baixada (Curitiba)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	Fanatiz


	Athletico Paranaense		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.3	2.15	Watch
	3.25	3.3	2.2
	3.2	3.2	2.22	Watch
	3.49	3.35	2.28
	3.34	3.29	2.25
	3.2	3.1	2.2
	3.37	3.34	2.24	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↓ (3.55)	3.27 ↑ (3.23)	2.22 ↑ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
28.6%

Draw
28.9%

Flamengo
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.9%

28.4%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

27.4%

47.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Flamengo will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 4. Arthur Dias 33. Aguirre F. 37. Esquivel L. 29. Benavidez G. 16. Jadson 5. Felipinho 10. Zapelli B. 6. Leo Derik 9. Viveros K. 7. Mendoza S.	1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 13. Danilo 4. Leo Pereira (C) 26. Alex Sandro 3. Leo Ortiz 8. Niguez S. 15. Carrascal J. 20. Lucas Paqueta 16. Samuel Lino 9. Pedro
Substitutes
47. Chiqueti 26. Claudinho 63. Diogo Riquelme 53. Dudu Kogitzki 2. Gilberto Junior 11. Isaac 8. Joao Cruz 3. Leo 21. Leozinho 42. Mateus Soares (G) 1. Mycael (G) 70. Renan Peixoto	6. Ayrton Lucas 27. Bruno Henrique 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 22. Emerson Royal 11. Everton 75. Mariano L. 44. Vitao 64. Wallace Yan
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Mendoza S. ⚽, Benavidez G. (A),
25', Carrascal J. 🟨,
28', Leo Derik ↓, Claudinho ↑,
40', Felipinho 🟨,
45+5', Hellmann O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Jadson 🟨,
59', Samuel Lino ↓, Everton ↑,
59', Niguez S. ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
65', Zapelli B. ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
65', Esquivel L. ↓, Gilberto Junior ↑,
70', Danilo 🟨,
82', Leo Ortiz ↓, Emerson Royal ↑,
84', 1 - 1, Pedro ⚽, Bruno Henrique (A),
90+2', Danilo 🟨,
90+3', Pedro ↓, Vitao ↑,
90+3', Carrascal J. ↓, Ayrton Lucas ↑,
90+5', Felipinho ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Athletico PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Flamengo has had a series of away games.

Flamengo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Julimar (Injury) Portilla J. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Flamengo: Evertton Araujo (Yellow Cards) Jorginho (Yellow Cards) Luiz Araujo (Injury) Plata G. (Knee Injury) Pulgar E. (Shoulder Injury) de Arrascaeta G. (Injury) de la Cruz N. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Teran C. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:32. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.1:1.2).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Flamengo RJ: 59.97% Athletico-PR: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	29	18	7	4	57:25	32	61
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50

Last Results with these Odds

Flamengo - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 45.71%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Atlético Goianiense - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Vasco da Gama - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Athletico Paranaense - Vitória Salvador	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
23.04.26	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Goianiense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLTWT
- Flamengo RJ
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Grêmio - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Flamengo	Abandoned ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LW?TT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
29.09.24	Flamengo - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
16.06.24	Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo	1:1
13.09.23	Flamengo - Athletico Paranaense	0:3
Copa do Brasil
12.07.23	Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo	0:2
05.07.23	Flamengo - Athletico Paranaense	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
07.05.23	Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo	2:1
Copa Libertadores
29.10.22	Flamengo - Athletico Paranaense	1:0

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