Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 1 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
South-america	ESPN 6 South
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Alianza Lima		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.8	Watch
	2.2	3	3.5
	2.2	2.95	3.75	Watch
	2.2	3.02	3.78	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.5	Watch
	2.21	3.06	3.81	Watch
	2.2	2.95	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.32)	2.98 ↓ (3.05)	3.7 ↑ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Libertadores with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS 7

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
42.9%

Draw
31.6%

Libertad Asuncion
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

30.8%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

29.7%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	13.3%	13.3%

Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Libertad will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza Lima: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Viscarra G. (G) 22. Enrique G. 5. Zambrano C. 6. Garces R. 21. Trauco M. 8. Castillo E. 20. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 4. Noriega E. 27. Quevedo K. 10. Ceppelini P. 9. Barcos H.	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 5. Viera D. 4. Gimenez N. 17. Espinoza M. 10. Melgarejo L. 26. Caballero H. 22. Martinez H. 18. Franco I. 21. Sanabria L. 11. Aguilar G.
Substitutes
1. Campos A. (G) 19. Cantero A. 51. Cari P. 15. Castillo J. 11. D'Arrigo J. 37. Delgado J. 7. Gaibor F. 14. Huaman M. 13. Lagos R. 34. Paolo Guerrero 16. Succar M. 35. Velasquez J.	20. Alcaraz A. 3. Caceres M. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 28. Fernandez M. 14. Fretes A. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 31. Gutierrez T. 27. Jacquet M. 24. Santa C. R. 1. Silva M. (G) 35. Troche A. 32. Villalba R.
Coaches
Gorosito N.	Aquino S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Enrique G. 🟨,
42', Melgarejo L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 0 - 1, Aguilar G. ⚽, Martinez H. (A),
57', Espinoza M. ↓, Gutierrez T. ↑,
58', Ceppelini P. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
58', Barcos H. ↓, Paolo Guerrero ↑,
68', Martinez H. 🟥,
68', Garces R. 🟨,
71', Lavandeira Hernandez P. ↓, Gaibor F. ↑,
77', Melgarejo L. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
77', Franco I. ↓, Alcaraz A. ↑,
77', Aguilar G. ↓, Santa C. R. ↑,
78', Quevedo K. 🟨,
81', Zambrano C. 🟨,
86', Gimenez N. 🟨,
87', Sanabria L. ↓, Cardozo Lucena A. ↑,
90+6', Enrique G. 🟨,
90+7', Trauco M. ↓, D'Arrigo J. ↑,

Preview

Now both teams are in good shape.

Alianza Lima could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Alianza Lima will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Alianza Lima won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:5 (average 1.3:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Alianza Lima won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:4 (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
29.03.25	ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
11.03.25	Alianza Lima - Deportes Iquique	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
07.03.25	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.03.25	Deportes Iquique - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
01.03.25	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTWWW
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
28.03.25	Libertad Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	1:1 ✺
22.03.25	General Caballero JLM - Libertad Asuncion	0:5 ✺
15.03.25	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
28.02.25	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
23.05.23	Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion	1:2
20.04.23	Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima	1:2
12.04.12	Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion	1:2

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