Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 21 January 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	17:00	Fox Sports
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Azerbaijan	00:00	Ictimai TV
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4, Play Sports Golf
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	17:00	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, Space, Space, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 2
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	21:00	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	00:00	Silk Sport 3
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 2
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	20:00	Stod 2 Sport 4
India	01:30	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect
Ireland	20:00	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	22:00	5 STARS Israel
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, Sky Sport 256
Japan	05:00	Wowow Cinema
Kosovo	21:00	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malta	21:00	TSN Malta 2
Mexico	14:00	HBO Max, MAX
Montenegro	21:00	Arena Sport 3
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Central America	—	SportsMax Caribbean
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 2
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 3
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 3
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport PSL
South America	—	ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Prime+
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 2
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Inter
Vietnam	03:00	TV 360
International	20:00	Disney+, JioTV app, SportsMax App, Virgin TV Go app


	Atlético Madrid		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.3	3.1
	2.3	3.2	3.2
	2.32	3.3	3.3	Watch
	2.38	3.35	3.28
	2.39	3.3	3.2
	2.3	3.2	3.1
	2.39	3.38	3.28
	2.32	3.3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.59)	3.29 ↓ (3.3)	3.22 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
41%

Draw
29.2%

Bayer Leverkusen
29.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.9%

29%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

29.4%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	32.8%	17.2%

Atlético Madrid - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 63 users predict this event. Atlético will win (votes: 32 - 50.8%). Bayer will win (votes: 10 - 15.9%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 38.5% – 63.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Oblak J. (C) 16. Molina N. 2. Gimenez J. M. 15. Lenglet C. 21. Galan J. 14. Llorente M. 5. de Paul R. 8. Barrios P. 22. Simeone G. 19. Alvarez J. 7. Griezmann A.	17. Kovar M. (G) 12. Tapsoba E. 4. Tah J. (C) 3. Hincapie P. 23. Mukiele N. 34. Xhaka G. 25. Palacios E. 20. Grimaldo A. 30. Frimpong J. 10. Wirtz F. 19. Tella N.
Substitutes
3. Azpilicueta C. 10. Correa A. 4. Gallagher C. 31. Gomis A. (G) 6. Koke 11. Lemar T. 24. Le Normand R. 12. Lino S. 23. Mandava R. 1. Musso J. (G) 17. Riquelme R. 20. Witsel A.	8. Andrich R. 13. Arthur 22. Boniface V. 24. Garcia A. 28. Hawighorst B. 7. Hofmann J. 1. Hradecky L. (G) 36. Lomb N. (G) 40. Onyeka F. 14. Schick P. 29. Stepanov A.
Coaches
Simeone D.	Alonso X.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Barrios P. 🟥,
44', Wirtz F. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Hincapie P. ⚽, Mukiele N. (A),
45+2', Tella N. 🟨,
45+2', Gimenez J. M. 🟨,
45+4', Hincapie P. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Galan J. ↓, Mandava R. ↑,
46', Mukiele N. ↓, Schick P. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Alvarez J. ⚽,
66', Simeone G. 🟨,
68', Tella N. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
76', Hincapie P. 🟨,
82', Frimpong J. ↓, Arthur ↑,
87', Simeone G. ↓, Lino S. ↑,
87', Griezmann A. ↓, Correa A. ↑,
89', Wirtz F. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Alvarez J. ⚽, Correa A. (A),
90+2', Alvarez J. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético won 1.

Atlético is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Bayer in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recently Atlético have a series of guest games.

Recently Bayer have a series of home games.

Atlético will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Atlético: Sorloth A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Adli A. (Ankle Injury) Belocian J. (Knee Injury) Boniface V. (Thigh Injury) Terrier M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Atlético won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:9 (average 1.3:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
18.01.25	Leganés - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
15.01.25	Elche - Atlético Madrid	0:4 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
12.01.25	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.01.25	Marbella - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
21.12.24	Barcelona - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LWWWW
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
18.01.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:1 ✺
14.01.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:0 ✺
10.01.25	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Rot-Weiß Oberhausen	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.12.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
26.10.22	Atlético Madrid - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
13.09.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Atlético Madrid	2:0
06.11.19	Bayer Leverkusen - Atlético Madrid	2:1
22.10.19	Atlético Madrid - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0
15.03.17	Atlético Madrid - Bayer Leverkusen	0:0
21.02.17	Bayer Leverkusen - Atlético Madrid	2:4
17.03.15	Atlético Madrid - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 penalties

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