Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 24

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bayer Leverkusen		Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	4.5	Watch
	1.68	4	4.6
	1.7	3.95	4.7	Watch
	1.72	4.16	4.74
	1.73	4.21	4.64	Watch
	1.67	3.8	4.5
	1.75	4.17	4.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.64)	4.04 ↓ (4.27)	4.66 ↓ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
55.9%

Draw
23.6%

Mainz
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

22.3%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

21%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	10.2%	4.1%

Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Mainz (4.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Mainz (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (42 of 49 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.91% – 95.51%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (10 of 13 users predict this - 76.92%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Mainz (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Blaswich J. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 13. Arthur 6. Fernandez E. 25. Palacios E. 20. Grimaldo A. 7. Hofmann J. 19. Poku E. 14. Schick P.	33. Batz D. (G) 31. Kohr D. 4. Posch S. 48. Potulski K. 30. Widmer S. (C) 7. Lee Jae-Sung 6. Sano K. 8. Nebel P. 2. Mwene P. 23. Becker S. 20. Tietz P.
Substitutes
42. Culbreath M. 24. Garcia A. 35. Kofane C. 36. Lomb N. (G) 30. Maza I. 15. Oermann T. 18. Omlin J. (G) 16. Tape A. 11. Terrier M.	14. Boving W. 21. da Costa D. 42. Gleiber D. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 36. Moreno Fell F. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 26. Silas
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Arthur ↓, Tape A. ↑,
59', Hofmann J. ↓, Maza I. ↑,
59', Poku E. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
66', Posch S. 🟨,
66', Tapsoba E. 🟨,
67', 0 - 1, Becker S. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
69', Becker S. ↓, Silas ↑,
72', Fernandez E. ↓, Kofane C. ↑,
81', Widmer S. ↓, da Costa D. ↑,
82', Palacios E. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Quansah J. ⚽, Kofane C. (A),
89', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
90+2', Maloney L. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 4.

Recent performances by Bayer have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mainz is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bayer is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Bade L. (Muscle Injury) Ben Seghir E. (Ankle Injury) Flekken M. (Injury) Lucas (Calf Injury) Tella N. (Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Bell S. (Injury) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Inactive) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kawasaki S. (Illness) Veratschnig N. (Illness) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Maza I. (Injury) Tillman M. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Weiper N. (Illness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 38:25. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.01% Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.02.26	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLWWT
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
20.02.26	Mainz - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	Mainz - Augsburg	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Mainz - Wolfsburg	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4
17.05.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
14.01.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:0
23.02.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	2:1
30.09.23	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	0:3
19.02.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	2:3
27.08.22	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	0:3

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