Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 24

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 2
Angola	15:30	Z Sports 2
Argentina	11:30	Disney+
Armenia	18:30	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Australia	01:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Brazil	11:30	SporTV
Bulgaria	16:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
China	22:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	15:30	See, Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	15:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	22:30	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	15:30	Arena 4
Iceland	14:30	Viaplay
India	20:00	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	21:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	16:30	Sport 3
Italy	15:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	23:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	21:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Mexico	08:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	22:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	19:30	Tapmad
Peru	09:30	Disney+
Philippines	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	14:30	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	17:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	17:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Premium 5, Arena Sport 3
Singapore	22:30	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	15:30	Nova Sport 5, Voyo
Slovenia	15:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	23:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Thailand	21:30	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, PPTV Sports
Turkey	17:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	16:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
Uruguay	11:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	10:30	Disney+
Vietnam	21:30	TV 360
International	14:30	Onefootball


	Bayer Leverkusen		Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	4.5	Watch
	1.68	4	4.6
	1.7	3.95	4.7	Watch
	1.72	4.16	4.74
	1.73	4.21	4.64	Watch
	1.67	3.8	4.5
	1.75	4.17	4.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.64)	4.04 ↓ (4.27)	4.66 ↓ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
55.9%

Draw
23.6%

Mainz
20.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.9%

22.3%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

20.4%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	10.2%	4.1%

Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Mainz (4.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Mainz (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (42 of 49 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.91% – 95.51%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (10 of 13 users predict this - 76.92%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Mainz (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Blaswich J. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 13. Arthur 6. Fernandez E. 25. Palacios E. 20. Grimaldo A. 7. Hofmann J. 19. Poku E. 14. Schick P.	33. Batz D. (G) 31. Kohr D. 4. Posch S. 48. Potulski K. 30. Widmer S. (C) 7. Lee Jae-Sung 6. Sano K. 8. Nebel P. 2. Mwene P. 23. Becker S. 20. Tietz P.
Substitutes
42. Culbreath M. 24. Garcia A. 35. Kofane C. 36. Lomb N. (G) 30. Maza I. 15. Oermann T. 18. Omlin J. (G) 16. Tape A. 11. Terrier M.	14. Boving W. 21. da Costa D. 42. Gleiber D. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 36. Moreno Fell F. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 26. Silas
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Arthur ↓, Tape A. ↑,
59', Hofmann J. ↓, Maza I. ↑,
59', Poku E. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
66', Posch S. 🟨,
66', Tapsoba E. 🟨,
67', 0 - 1, Becker S. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
69', Becker S. ↓, Silas ↑,
72', Fernandez E. ↓, Kofane C. ↑,
81', Widmer S. ↓, da Costa D. ↑,
82', Palacios E. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Quansah J. ⚽, Kofane C. (A),
89', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
90+2', Maloney L. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 4.

Recent performances by Bayer have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mainz is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bayer is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Bade L. (Muscle Injury) Ben Seghir E. (Ankle Injury) Flekken M. (Injury) Lucas (Calf Injury) Tella N. (Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Bell S. (Injury) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Inactive) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kawasaki S. (Illness) Veratschnig N. (Illness) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Maza I. (Injury) Tillman M. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Weiper N. (Illness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 38:25. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Bayer Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	16:12	4	13
8	Mainz	8	3	1	4	17:17	0	10

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 2.91% Mainz: 0.2%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.02.26	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLWWT
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
20.02.26	Mainz - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	Mainz - Augsburg	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Mainz - Wolfsburg	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4
17.05.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
14.01.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:0
23.02.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	2:1
30.09.23	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	0:3
19.02.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	2:3
27.08.22	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	0:3

Upcoming Matches