Match Info

LaLiga - Round 33

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero (Elche)

Referee: Cuadra G. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Iraq	Almanasa
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Zoom
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, SCTV 15, SCTV Online, VTVcab


	Elche		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.7	2.8	Watch
	2.42	3.55	2.82	Watch
	2.47	3.65	2.93
	2.42	3.76	2.85
	2.3	3.4	2.8
	2.4	3.78	2.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (3.1)	3.64 ↑ (3.6)	2.84 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elche
40%

Draw
26.3%

Atlético Madrid
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

26.1%

43.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

24.3%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elche has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elche's performance.

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elche than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elche that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.2%	20.5%	51.3%

Elche - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Elche will win (votes: 11 - 28.9%). Atlético will win (votes: 19 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 34.1% – 65.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Elche (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Elche (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Atlético (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dituro M. (C) 42. Buba Sangare 22. Affengruber D. 21. Petrot L. 11. Valera G. 15. Tete Morente 12. Villar G. 14. Febas A. 16. Neto M. 9. Andre Silva 10. Mir R.	13. Oblak J. (C) 32. Bonar J. 24. Le Normand R. 15. Lenglet C. 34. Diaz J. 21. Vargas O. 5. Cardoso J. 4. Mendoza R. 23. Gonzalez N. 10. Baena A. 11. Almada T.
Substitutes
6. Bigas P. 24. Cepeda L. 23. Chust V. 18. Donald J. 39. Fort H. 45. Iturbe A. (G) 17. Josan 3. Pedrosa A. 13. Pena I. (G) 5. Redondo Solari F. 20. Rodriguez A. 7. Santiago Y.	8. Barrios P. 29. Belaid R. 61. Cubo M. 7. Griezmann A. 37. Luque I. 30. Martinez D. 16. Molina N. 47. Morcillo J. 1. Musso J. (G) 18. Pubill M. 40. Puric A. 20. Simeone G.
Coaches
Sarabia E.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Gonzalez N. ⚽, Mendoza R. (A),
18', 1 - 1, Affengruber D. ⚽, Tete Morente (A),
30', Almada T. 🟥,
33', 2 - 1, Andre Silva (Penalty Awarded),
34', 2 - 2, Gonzalez N. ⚽, Le Normand R. (A),
36', Lenglet C. 🟨,
38', Diaz J. 🟨,
45+4', Febas A. 🟨,
45+4', Buba Sangare 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Le Normand R. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
46', Diaz J. ↓, Pubill M. ↑,
60', Buba Sangare ↓, Chust V. ↑,
62', Vargas O. ↓, Barrios P. ↑,
62', Mendoza R. ↓, Griezmann A. ↑,
62', Baena A. ↓, Simeone G. ↑,
67', Tete Morente ↓, Josan ↑,
67', Mir R. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
67', Neto M. ↓, Cepeda L. ↑,
75', 3 - 2, Andre Silva ⚽, Affengruber D. (A),
82', Petrot L. ↓, Bigas P. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elche won 1.

Elche has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Atlético's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atlético may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Elche: Boayar A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Gimenez J. M. (Injury) Hancko D. (Injury) Lookman A. (Muscle Injury) Sorloth A. (Contusion)

There are questionable in Atlético: Ruggeri M. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Elche won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 4:27. (average 0.3:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Elche won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 2:12. (average 0.3:1.7).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 3.41% Elche: 0.19%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	7	5	1	1	16:7	9	16
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11:17	-6	5

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Madrid - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 43.48%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elche CF
Spanish LaLiga
11.04.26	Elche - Valencia	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - Elche	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
27.03.26	Aston Villa - Elche	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
21.03.26	Elche - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Real Madrid - Elche	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLWWL
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish Copa del Rey
18.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad	2:3 penalties ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
11.04.26	Sevilla - Atlético Madrid	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.04.26	Barcelona - Atlético Madrid	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
23.08.25	Atlético Madrid - Elche	1:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
15.01.25	Elche - Atlético Madrid	0:4
Spanish LaLiga
14.05.23	Elche - Atlético Madrid	1:0
29.12.22	Atlético Madrid - Elche	2:0
11.05.22	Elche - Atlético Madrid	0:2
22.08.21	Atlético Madrid - Elche	1:0
01.05.21	Elche - Atlético Madrid	0:1

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