Match Info

LaLiga - Round 6

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, New World Sport 4, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA French 1
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Idman TV
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1, Silk Sport 3
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kenya	Gotv
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 2, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 15


	Atlético Madrid		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.1	7.5	Watch
	1.5	4.15	6.9	Watch
	1.51	4.3	7.43
	1.54	4.44	7.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 (1.51)	4.25 ↓ (4.39)	7.25 ↑ (5.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
64%

Draw
22.7%

Rayo Vallecano
13.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.4%

21.5%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8%

21%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.2%	8.1%	2.7%

Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Rayo Vallecano (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Atlético (1.79) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (65 of 73 users predict this - 89.04%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.87% – 96.21%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (25 of 26 users predict this - 96.15%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 29 - 93.5%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 1 - 3.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Oblak J. (G) 16. Molina N. 24. Le Normand R. 17. Hancko D. 21. Galan J. 14. Llorente M. 6. Koke (C) 8. Barrios P. 4. Gallagher C. 7. Griezmann A. 19. Alvarez J.	13. Batalla A. (G) 20. Balliu I. 24. Lejeune F. 33. Vertrouwd J. 3. Chavarria P. 2. Ratiu A. 17. Lopez U. 23. Valentin O. (C) 21. Perez F. 7. Palazon I. 9. Alemao
Substitutes
10. Baena A. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 23. Gonzalez N. 15. Lenglet C. 12. Martin C. 27. Monserrate J. 1. Musso J. (G) 18. Pubill M. 22. Raspadori G. 3. Ruggeri M. 28. Seidu T. 20. Simeone G.	28. Becerra S. 10. Camello S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 6. Ciss P. 19. de Frutos J. 26. de las Sias M. 4. Diaz P. 18. Garcia A. 15. Gumbau G. 32. Mendy N. 22. Pacha 8. Trejo O.
Coaches
Simeone D.	Perez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Alvarez J. ⚽, Llorente M. (A),
45+1', 1 - 1, Chavarria P. ⚽, Lopez U. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', Koke 🟨,
54', Balliu I. 🟨,
56', Koke ↓, Gonzalez N. ↑,
56', Molina N. ↓, Simeone G. ↑,
65', Perez F. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
65', Valentin O. ↓, Ciss P. ↑,
66', Alemao ↓, Pacha ↑,
73', Galan J. ↓, Raspadori G. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Garcia A. ⚽, Palazon I. (A),
79', Lopez U. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
79', Gallagher C. ↓, Pubill M. ↑,
79', Griezmann A. ↓, Ruggeri M. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Alvarez J. ⚽,
86', Palazon I. ↓, Gumbau G. ↑,
87', Llorente M. 🟨,
87', Chavarria P. 🟨,
88', 3 - 2, Alvarez J. ⚽, Simeone G. (A),
90+3', Ciss P. 🟨,
90+6', Le Normand R. 🟨,
90+8', Ratiu A. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Atlético may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Atlético is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Atlético: Almada T. (Muscle Injury) Gimenez J. M. (Thigh Injury) Sorloth A. (Red Card)

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Luiz Felipe (Muscle Injury) Mumin A. (Knee Injury) Nteka R. (Contusion)

There are questionable in Atlético: Cardoso J. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 15 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 45:13. (average 2.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 25:6. (average 2.5:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
21.09.25	Mallorca - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Liverpool - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Deportivo Alavés - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Atlético Madrid - Elche	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 TLWTT
- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
21.09.25	Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Rayo Vallecano - Barcelona	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Rayo Vallecano - Neman Grodno	4:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
25.08.25	Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
24.04.25	Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	3:0
22.09.24	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	1:1
31.01.24	Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	2:1
28.08.23	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	0:7
09.04.23	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	1:2
18.10.22	Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	1:1
19.03.22	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	0:1

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