Match Info

LaLiga - Round 7

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Ortiz M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, Startimes Am'mobi, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 2
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bolivia	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Cambodia	MyTV
Canada	TSN 5, TSN+
China	Migu
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Disney+
France	DAZN France, Disney+
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Italy	20 Mediaset, DAZN Italia, Infinity+
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2, Varzish Sport
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, PPTV Sports
Turkey	S Sport
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN 2, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, SCTV 15, SCTV Online, VTVcab


	Atlético Madrid		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.80	2.00	Watch
	3.40	3.80	2.00
	3.65	3.75	1.93	Watch
	3.65	3.86	2.05
	3.24	3.93	2.14
	3.65	3.80	2.00
	3.75	3.83	1.95	Watch
	3.60	3.95	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (3.55)	3.84 ↓ (3.87)	2.01 ↑ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
27%

Draw
25%

Real Madrid
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

24.5%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

24.9%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.6%	15.6%	68.7%

Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Atlético will win (votes: 4 - 12.9%). Real will win (votes: 22 - 71%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 55% – 87%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Atlético (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.50) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Atlético (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.50) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.53) (votes: 89%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Real (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Oblak J. (C) 18. Pubill M. 21. Romero C. 17. Hancko D. 22. Grimaldo A. 20. Simeone G. 14. Llorente M. 5. Cardoso J. 10. Baena A. 7. Lee Kang-In 15. David J.	1. Courtois T. (G) 24. Dumfries D. 16. Konate I. 4. Huijsen D. 17. Cucurella M. 8. Valverde F. (C) 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 5. Bellingham J. 7. Vinicius Junior 10. Mbappe K.
Substitutes
19. Alvarez J. 46. Castillo J. 27. Dominguez J. 23. Hjulmand M. 6. Koke 24. Le Normand R. 11. Lookman A. 30. Martinez D. 4. Mendoza R. 1. Musso J. (G) 16. Ortiz A. 3. Vargas O.	12. Alexander-Arnold T. 2. Asencio R. 6. Camavinga E. 18. Carreras A. 21. Diaz B. 25. Diomande Y. 9. Endrick 19. Espi C. 13. Lunin A. (G) 27. Pitarch T. 22. Rudiger A. 20. Silva B.
Coaches
Simeone D.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Simeone D. 🟨,
35', Pubill M. 🟨,
39', Romero C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Pubill M. ↓, Koke ↑,
49', Dumfries D. 🟨,
50', Huijsen D. 🟥,
53', 1 - 0, Grimaldo A. (Penalty Awarded),
54', Vinicius Junior ↓, Diomande Y. ↑,
54', Guler A. ↓, Rudiger A. ↑,
59', 2 - 0, David J. ⚽, Simeone G. (A),
62', David J. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
67', Baena A. ↓, Lookman A. ↑,
71', Tchouameni A. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
78', Bellingham J. 🟨,
82', Bellingham J. ↓, Silva B. ↑,
89', Lee Kang-In ↓, Hjulmand M. ↑,
89', Romero C. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Rudiger A. ⚽, Silva B. (A),

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 4th in the Promotion ~ Champions League League phase and 2nd in the Promotion ~ Champions League League phase).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 1.

In recent outings, Atlético has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Real shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Real could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Atlético has faced a series of away games on the road.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Real holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Atlético: Barrios P. (Muscle Injury) Sorloth A. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Real: Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Hip Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Atlético has recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:34 (averaging 1.4:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Atlético against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 18:12 goals (averaging 2:1.3 per game).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 20.23% Atl. Madrid: 3.08%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	7	5	1	1	16:7	9	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18:8	10	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
16.09.26	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	4:0 ✺
13.09.26	Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Liverpool - Atlético Madrid	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
05.09.26	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Sevilla - Atlético Madrid	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWLLW
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
15.09.26	Elche - Real Madrid	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Real Madrid - Inter Milan	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.09.26	Betis - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Real Madrid - Málaga	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
22.03.26	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	3:2
Spanish Supercopa
08.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:2
Spanish LaLiga
27.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	5:2
UEFA Champions League
12.03.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:1 penalties
04.03.25	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	2:1
Spanish LaLiga
08.02.25	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	1:1
29.09.24	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:1

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