The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Atlético Mineiro 33.8%
Draw 26.9%
Cruzeiro 39.4%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
39.1%
28%
32.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.5%
28.3%
33.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Mineiro's form might have worsened.
Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cruzeiro's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+4.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-6.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cruzeiro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
21.4%
50%
28.6%
Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro Predictions
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8% – 76.2%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH 0 - Atlético MG (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
O/U 2.25 - over (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 2. Natanael 40. Vitao 13. Lyanco (C) 6. Lodi R. 21. Franco A. 15. Castano K. 10. Gustavo Scarpa 30. Victor Hugo 17. Igor Gomes 19. Reinier
81. Otavio Costa (G) 12. William Furtado 43. Joao Marcelo 34. Jonathan Jesus 25. Villalba L. 29. Romero L. (C) 5. Ze Lucas 8. Gerson 10. Matheus Pereira 99. Arroyo K. 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
5. Alexsander 11. Bernard 29. Caua 39. Cisse M. 3. Duarte L. 92. Dudu 8. Maycon 27. Minda A. 36. Pascini K. 25. Perez T. 23. Preciado A. 31. Robert (G)
9. Bruno Rodrigues 1. Cassio (G) 15. Fabricio Bruno 23. Fagner 16. Lucas Silva 11. Marquinhos 7. Matheus Henrique 97. Rodriguez L. 27. Rojas G. 22. Villarreal N. 6. Vina M. 20. Wesley
Coaches
Dominguez E.
Artur Jorge
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Arroyo K. (A),
24', Natanael 🟨,
25', Ze Lucas 🟨,
42', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Minda A. ↑,
46', Natanael ↓, Maycon ↑,
46', Ze Lucas ↓, Matheus Henrique ↑,
57', Vitao ↓, Duarte L. ↑,
65', Villalba L. ↓, Vina M. ↑,
65', Joao Marcelo ↓, Fabricio Bruno ↑,
67', Reinier ↓, Caua ↑,
68', Igor Gomes ↓, Bernard ↑,
69', Matheus Henrique 🟨,
82', Gerson ↓, Bruno Rodrigues ↑,
82', Kaio Jorge ↓, Villarreal N. ↑,
83', Jonathan Jesus 🟨,
85', William Furtado 🟨,
90+9', Minda A. 🟨,
Preview
A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 3rd in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 3.
In recent outings, Atlético MG has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Cruzeiro shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
Atlético MG may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
Confirmed absences for Atlético MG: Borbas T.
(Muscle Injury)
Cassierra M.
(Muscle Injury)
Cuello
(Ribs Injury)
Everson
(Foot Injury)
Fred
(Muscle Injury)
Ruan Tressoldi
(Muscle Injury)
Vitor Hugo
(Yellow Cards).
Confirmed absences for Cruzeiro: Gabriel Pec
(Broken Leg)
Sinisterra L.
(Muscle Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Cruzeiro: Arroyo K.
(Injury)
Felipe Morais
(Muscle Injury).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Atlético MG has recorded 8 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:18 (averaging 1.2:0.9 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Atlético MG against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 13:11 goals (averaging 1.3:1.1 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Cruzeiro
33
17
6
10
52:46
6
57
7
Atletico-MG
33
14
8
11
44:39
5
50
Last Results with these Odds
Cruzeiro - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.88%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
Argentina
Brazil
Ecuador
Germany
North Central America
Paraguay
Switzerland
Uruguay
Usa
International
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Gabriel Delfim (G) 
Franco A. 
Castano K. 
Villalba L. 
Cisse M. 
Rodriguez L. 
Artur Jorge 
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