Match Info

Serie A - Round 32

Date: 26 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	20:00	Globoplay, Premiere, SporTV
Ecuador	18:00	Canal del Futbol
Suriname	20:00	SCCN


	Flamengo		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.24	5.25	12.00
	1.26	6.25	10.50
	1.26	5.75	10.00
	1.25	6.26	12.40
	1.28	5.7	10.5
	1.23	6.15	12.00
	1.27	5.59	13.20	Watch
	1.23	6.00	11.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.34)	5.87 ↑ (5.08)	11.45 ↑ (8.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
75.6%

Draw
16.1%

Atlético Mineiro
8.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

70.2%

18.5%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.8%

17.9%

11.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Flamengo's performance.

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Flamengo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

Flamengo - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira 26. Alex Sandro 5. Pulgar E. 21. Jorginho 19. Plata G. 10. de Arrascaeta G. (C) 16. Samuel Lino 9. Pedro	1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 2. Natanael 40. Vitao 13. Lyanco 6. Lodi R. 8. Maycon 21. Franco A. 23. Preciado A. 30. Victor Hugo 11. Bernard (C) 17. Igor Gomes
Substitutes
6. Ayrton Lucas 27. Bruno Henrique 15. Carrascal J. 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 22. Emerson Royal 30. Freitas J. 61. Joao Souza 11. Lucas Paqueta 7. Luiz Araujo 44. Vitao	5. Alexsander 15. Castano K. 39. Cisse M. 3. Duarte L. 92. Dudu 10. Gustavo Scarpa 27. Minda A. 36. Pascini K. 25. Perez T. 19. Reinier 31. Robert (G) 14. Vitor Hugo
Coaches
Jardim L.	Dominguez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Bernard ⚽, Preciado A. (A),
34', 1 - 1, Plata G. ⚽, Varela G. (A),
41', 2 - 1, de Arrascaeta G. ⚽, Samuel Lino (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Alex Sandro ↓, Ayrton Lucas ↑,
59', 2 - 2, Lodi R. ⚽, Victor Hugo (A),
63', Maycon ↓, Castano K. ↑,
63', Igor Gomes ↓, Reinier ↑,
63', Preciado A. ↓, Minda A. ↑,
69', Plata G. ↓, Carrascal J. ↑,
69', Pedro ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
75', Leo Pereira 🟨,
75', Jorginho ↓, Freitas J. ↑,
75', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, Lucas Paqueta ↑,
76', Carrascal J. 🟨,
90+1', Victor Hugo ↓, Vitor Hugo ↑,
90+1', Bernard ↓, Alexsander ↑,
90+8', Vitor Hugo 🟨,
90+9', 3 - 2, Carrascal J. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 6th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 3.

Flamengo has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Atlético MG is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The betting markets point to Flamengo as the clear and undisputed favorite.

Confirmed absences for Flamengo: Danilo (Inactive) Evertton Araujo (Thigh Injury) de Arrascaeta G. (Wrist Injury).

Confirmed absences for Atlético MG: Cassierra M. (Injury) Everson (Foot Injury) Fred (Injury) Gustavo Scarpa (Muscle Injury) Ruan Tressoldi (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo has recorded 10 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:24 (averaging 1.3:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Flamengo against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 8:6 goals (averaging 0.9:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	32	21	7	4	64:27	37	70
6	Atletico-MG	32	14	8	10	44:38	6	50

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Flamengo RJ: 60.66%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
22.10.26	Flamengo - Estudiantes La Plata	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.26	Bahia - Flamengo	0:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.10.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.26	Flamengo - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
08.10.26	Santos - Flamengo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWTWT
- Atlético Mineiro
Copa Sudamericana
21.10.26	Montevideo City Torque - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.10.26	Atlético Mineiro - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.10.26	Atlético Mineiro - Montevideo City Torque	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.26	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	2:1 ✺
08.10.26	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	0:4
25.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	1:1
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	1:1 penalties
31.07.25	Flamengo - Atlético Mineiro	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
27.07.25	Flamengo - Atlético Mineiro	1:0
13.11.24	Flamengo - Atlético Mineiro	0:0
Copa do Brasil
10.11.24	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	0:1

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