Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Palmar (Sanlúcar de Barrameda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Atlético Sanluqueño		Real Murcia

	1	X	2
	3.7	3	2
	3	2.87	2.25
	3.6	2.92	2.1
	3.35	2.83	2.39	Watch
	3.6	2.8	2.05
	3.82	3.1	2.06
	3.5	2.83	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↓ (3.81)	2.91 ↓ (3.02)	2.14 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Sanluqueño
26%

Draw
31.4%

Real Murcia
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.4%

30.8%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.3%

29.7%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Sanluqueño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Real Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Sanluqueño than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Atlético Sanluqueño - Real Murcia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Murcia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Murcia will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Dominguez R. (G) 2. Sola Villalba R. 5. Trapero 18. Diallo B. 12. Rodriguez S. 17. Rodri 16. Tounkara N. 30. Barea P. 9. Zequi (C) 8. Gallastegui J. 19. Juarez A.	1. Gazzaniga G. (G) 18. Vicente D. 6. Gonzalez A. (C) 26. Perez H. 2. Mier J. 10. Gomez I. 31. Djanbou S. 30. Joao Pedro Palmberg 9. Benito P. A. P. 20. Zenitagoia E. 3. Romero C.
Substitutes
20. Arruabarrena J. 29. Cardona G. 22. Carneil H. 23. Gomez A. 27. Gonzalez I. 14. Hernandez Camps G. 1. Kudakovskiy P. (G) 11. Lorenzo O. 26. Morales L. 28. Moreno F. 25. Valencia F. (G)	16. Antonio David 23. Bosilj D. 11. Bustos A. 5. Jaso Zunzarren A. 22. Juan Carlos 35. Kajaia S. (G) 38. Lara M. 14. Leon P. 4. Lopez A. 8. Schalk A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Gallastegui J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', Gomez I. 🟨,
58', Zenitagoia E. ↓, Bosilj D. ↑,
61', Gallastegui J. ↓, Lorenzo O. ↑,
72', Barea P. ↓, Moreno F. ↑,
72', Joao Pedro Palmberg ↓, Juan Carlos ↑,
75', 0 - 1, Bosilj D. ⚽,
80', Juarez A. ↓, Arruabarrena J. ↑,
80', Zequi ↓, Morales L. ↑,
83', Benito P. A. P. ↓, Schalk A. ↑,
83', Vicente D. 🟨,
88', 0 - 2, Bosilj D. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sanluqueño won 2.

Recent form of Sanluqueño has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Murcia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Murcia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Murcia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Sanluqueño won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 0.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sanluqueño won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Murcia	6	4	0	2	10:7	3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Sanluqueño - the odds 3.81 are the expected chance of winning is 24.38%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Real Murcia - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 44.87%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Sanluqueño
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.12.25	Sevilla B - Atlético Sanluqueño	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Hércules	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Marbella - Atlético Sanluqueño	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Tarazona	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Algeciras - Atlético Sanluqueño	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTLWL
- Real Murcia
Club Friendly
30.12.25	UCAM Murcia - Real Murcia	3:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.12.25	Real Murcia - CE Europa	3:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
18.12.25	Real Murcia - Betis	0:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
13.12.25	Real Murcia - Sabadell	0:1 ✺
08.12.25	Cartagena - Real Murcia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
17.05.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Real Murcia	0:0
24.11.24	Real Murcia - Atlético Sanluqueño	0:0
23.03.24	Atlético Sanluqueño - Real Murcia	0:1
09.09.23	Real Murcia - Atlético Sanluqueño	2:3
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
27.10.19	Real Murcia - Atlético Sanluqueño	1:2
13.01.19	Real Murcia - Atlético Sanluqueño	1:0
26.08.18	Atlético Sanluqueño - Real Murcia	1:2

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