Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Referee: Gomez H. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN, Univision


	Atlas		Toluca

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.33	1.57	Watch
	4.7	4.15	1.62
	5.44	4.76	1.50	Watch
	5.09	4.41	1.62	Watch
	5.1	4.3	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.02 ↓ (5.4)	4.39 ↓ (4.7)	1.58 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlas
18.8%

Draw
21.5%

Toluca
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.3%

19.9%

62.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.6%

19.1%

65.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toluca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	16.7%	83.3%

Atlas - Toluca Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Atlas (3.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Toluca (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Toluca (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlas (votes: 1 - 20%). Toluca (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Vargas C. (G) 4. Mora A. 5. Matheus Doria 13. Aguirre G. 3. Gustavo Ferrareis 15. Ramirez P. 26. Rocha A. (C) 199. Hernandez S. 11. Gonzalez D. 8. Garcia M. E. 32. Djurdjevic U.	22. Garcia L. (G) 19. Simon S. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 25. del Villar E. 20. Gallardo J. 5. Romero F. 14. Ruiz M. (C) 8. Castro N. 10. Angulo J. 26. Paulinho
Substitutes
19. Aguirre E. 7. Coccaro M. 10. del Prete G. 58. Gonzalez A. 44. Pier R. 16. Ramirez A. 14. Ramos C. (G) 27. Rios De Alba V. H. 25. Rodriguez J. 218. San Martin J.	24. Arce F. 33. Arteaga V. 2. Barbosa D. 3. Briseno A. 7. Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 16. Herrera H. 17. Isais M. 31. Morales R. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Cocca D.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Ruiz M. 🟨,
43', Djurdjevic U. 🟨,
44', Simon S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Garcia M. E. ↓, Rios De Alba V. H. ↑,
65', del Villar E. ↓, Morales R. ↑,
73', Matheus Doria 🟨,
80', Djurdjevic U. ↓, Coccaro M. ↑,
86', Castro N. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
90+1', Ruiz M. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
90+1', Gallardo J. ↓, Isais M. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 0.

Atlas has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Toluca is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.

There will not play in Atlas: Cruz C. (Knee Injury) Manotas M. (Inactive) Ortega E. (Suspended) Zaldivar E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Toluca: Luan (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Atlas: Lozano J. (Muscle Injury) Sanchez A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 25:39. (average 1.3:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlas won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 0.9:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Atlas
Mexican Liga MX
25.10.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Atlas	4:1 ✺
22.10.25	Atlas - Club León	2:0 ✺
17.10.25	Atlético San Luis - Atlas	2:0 ✺
03.10.25	Atlas - Juárez	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Atlas - Necaxa	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWLWW
- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
26.10.25	Toluca - Pachuca	2:2 ✺
22.10.25	Tijuana - Toluca	0:0 ✺
18.10.25	Toluca - Querétaro	4:0 ✺
04.10.25	Club León - Toluca	2:4 ✺
Campeones Cup
01.10.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - Toluca	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
12.04.25	Atlas - Toluca	2:3
28.09.24	Toluca - Atlas	4:1
07.04.24	Toluca - Atlas	4:1
26.08.23	Atlas - Toluca	0:0
01.02.23	Atlas - Toluca	0:0
10.07.22	Toluca - Atlas	3:2
24.04.22	Toluca - Atlas	2:4

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