Match Info

CONCACAF Champions Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Dignity Health Sports Park (Carson, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Haiti	Tele Haiti
India	FanCode, FanCode
Israel	Sport 1
Mexico	FOX One, FOX Sports
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV3
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-america	ViX Latin America
Suriname	SCCN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	FOX One, FOX Sports 1, FOX Sports App, Foxsports.com, TUDN App, TUDN
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Los Angeles Galaxy		Toluca

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.6	2.5	Watch
	2.58	3.5	2.4
	2.63	3.79	2.53
	2.77	3.69	2.38	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.3
	2.84	3.7	2.45	Watch
	2.3	3.6	2.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.3)	3.6 (3.6)	2.46 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Los Angeles Galaxy
35.8%

Draw
26.1%

Toluca
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

25.6%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

24.9%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Los Angeles Galaxy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Los Angeles Galaxy than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	42.9%	14.3%

Los Angeles Galaxy - Toluca Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. LA Galaxy will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Toluca will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. LA Galaxy (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Marcinkowski J. (G) 2. Yamane M. 25. Garces C. 4. Yoshida M. (C) 3. Aude J. 15. Haak J. 6. Cerrillo E. 11. Gabriel Pec 27. Thommy E. 18. Reus M. 99. Joao Klauss	22. Garcia L. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez 25. del Villar E. 20. Gallardo J. (C) 5. Romero F. 11. Helinho 8. Castro N. 19. Simon S. 26. Paulinho 10. Angulo J.
Substitutes
19. Cuevas M. 21. Lepley T. 1. Micovic N. (G) 26. Miller H. 14. Nelson J. 28. Paintsil J. 16. Parente I. 24. Ramos R. 20. Rindov C. 8. Sanabria L. 31. Scott B. (G) 22. Wynder E.	24. Arce F. 33. Arteaga V. 3. Briseno A. 7. Cordova S. 29. Diaz J. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 17. Isais M. 15. Perez P. 27. Rossi F. 14. Ruiz M. 9. Vega A. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Vanney G.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Gallardo J. ⚽, Romero F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Garces C. ↓, Wynder E. ↑,
54', Barbosa D. 🟨,
58', 0 - 2, Paulinho ⚽, Helinho (A),
64', Helinho ↓, Perez P. ↑,
64', 0 - 3, Paulinho ⚽, Castro N. (A),
68', Joao Klauss ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
68', Thommy E. ↓, Paintsil J. ↑,
69', Cerrillo E. ↓, Sanabria L. ↑,
73', Angulo J. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
73', Paulinho ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
73', Reus M. ↓, Parente I. ↑,
82', Haak J. 🟨,
82', Bruno Mendez ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
83', Castro N. ↓, Rossi F. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 2-4. Second leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, LA Galaxy has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, LA Galaxy won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 2:3.5).

Including home match between the teams, LA Galaxy won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Toluca - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.37%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Los Angeles Galaxy
MLS
11.04.26	Austin FC - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
08.04.26	Toluca - Los Angeles Galaxy	4:2 ✺
MLS
04.04.26	Los Angeles Galaxy - Minnesota United	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Portland Timbers - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
19.03.26	Mount Pleasant - Los Angeles Galaxy	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLLTW
- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
12.04.26	Toluca - Atlético San Luis	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
08.04.26	Toluca - Los Angeles Galaxy	4:2 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
04.04.26	Querétaro - Toluca	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Pachuca - Toluca	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
18.03.26	Toluca - San Diego	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF Champions Cup
08.04.26	Toluca - Los Angeles Galaxy	4:2
Campeones Cup
01.10.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - Toluca	2:3

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