Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Referee: Gomez H. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Canal 5, FOX One, FOX Sports, Tubi TV, TUDN, VIX, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Toluca		Pachuca

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.9	4.2	Watch
	1.82	3.8	3.9
	1.82	3.7	3.95	Watch
	1.87	3.89	4.26
	1.81	3.9	4.11	Watch
	1.75	3.4	3.8
	1.79	3.68	4.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.82)	3.75 ↓ (4.01)	4.05 ↑ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
51.9%

Draw
25%

Pachuca
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

23.5%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8%

24.8%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Toluca have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Pachuca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Toluca - Pachuca Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Garcia L. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez 25. del Villar E. 35. Alvarez A. 5. Romero F. 14. Ruiz M. (C) 15. Perez P. 10. Angulo J. 7. Cordova S. 29. Diaz J.	25. Moreno C. (C) 14. Sanchez C. 4. Eduardo Bauermann 2. Barreto S. D. 26. Bautista A. 16. Rivera C. 28. Montiel E. 29. Kenedy 8. Guzman V. 11. Idrissi O. 10. Valencia E.
Substitutes
24. Arce F. 33. Arteaga V. 8. Castro N. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 17. Isais M. 206. Orta E. 26. Paulinho 27. Rossi F. 19. Simon S.	184. Alfaro C. 187. Alvarez G. 13. Berlanga J. 18. Dominguez A. 31. Eulogio J. (G) 21. Lopez R. 5. Pedraza P. 7. Quinones L. 139. Ramirez J. 188. Rodriguez S.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Solari E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Valencia E. ⚽, Montiel E. (A),
41', Bautista A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Cordova S. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
60', Angulo J. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
60', Barbosa D. ↓, Simon S. ↑,
64', Idrissi O. ↓, Dominguez A. ↑,
75', Sanchez C. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
75', Perez P. ↓, Rossi F. ↑,
76', Alvarez A. 🟨,
82', Alvarez A. ↓, Isais M. ↑,
90', Montiel E. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
90', Kenedy ↓, Berlanga J. ↑,
90+7', Rodriguez S. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Toluca has had a series of away games.

In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 38:36. (average 1.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:21. (average 2.1:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25:15	10	20
12	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15:11	4	12

Last Results with these Odds

Toluca - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 51.87%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
CONCACAF Champions Cup
29.04.26	Los Angeles - Toluca	2:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
25.04.26	Toluca - Club León	4:1 ✺
22.04.26	Mazatlan - Toluca	4:3 ✺
18.04.26	Club América - Toluca	2:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
15.04.26	Los Angeles Galaxy - Toluca	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLLW
- CF Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX
25.04.26	Pachuca - UNAM	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Tijuana - Pachuca	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Monterrey - Pachuca	1:3 ✺
11.04.26	Pachuca - Santos Laguna	4:2 ✺
04.04.26	Cruz Azul - Pachuca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
22.03.26	Pachuca - Toluca	1:1
26.10.25	Toluca - Pachuca	2:2
29.03.25	Toluca - Pachuca	3:2
17.09.24	Pachuca - Toluca	2:2
30.03.24	Pachuca - Toluca	2:3
03.09.23	Toluca - Pachuca	5:0
19.02.23	Pachuca - Toluca	1:2

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