Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Campeones del 36 (Sullana)

Referee: Blas A. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App, Nativa
Usa	Fanatiz


	Atlético Grau		Deportivo Garcilaso

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.6	Watch
	1.85	3	3.9
	2.15	3	3.6	Watch
	2.14	3.1	3.85
	2.11	3.07	3.8	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.6
	2.1	2.98	3.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (2.01)	3.02 ↓ (3.1)	3.74 ↓ (3.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Grau
44.6%

Draw
30.6%

Deportivo Garcilaso
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

29.8%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

25%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Grau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Deportivo Garcilaso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Grau that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Atlético Grau - Deportivo Garcilaso Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Grau will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Deportivo Garcilaso will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alvarez P. (C) 27. Tapia R. 2. Acevedo L. 3. Tapia I. 6. Rodas E. 32. Torres S. 13. Oncoy F. 5. Guarderas R. 22. Neira C. 10. de la Cruz P. 9. Ruidiaz R.	1. Zubczuk P. (C) 2. Salazar A. 19. Gomez A. 13. Benincasa H. 16. Nunez O. 11. Arancibia F. 18. Ramos Rodriguez C. I. 8. Gonzalez A. 7. Sinisterra J. 29. Graneros A. 30. Da Silva B.
Substitutes
16. Ataupillco J. 7. Barreto D. 33. Calderon A. (G) 19. Camargo I. 66. de la Cruz A. 11. Delgadillo N. 26. Flores A. 29. Franco E. 24. Ruidiaz Y.	27. Ascues A. 31. Barbieri J. (G) 6. Garrafa Tapia I. A. 23. Moreno X. 24. Olivares C. 22. Portales J. 17. Ramirez S. 10. Sandoval K. 33. Villacorta S.
Coaches
Ameli G.	Dominguez S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Salazar A. 🟨,
45+4', Rodas E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Guarderas R. 🟨,
55', Tapia R. 🟨,
62', Oncoy F. ↓, Barreto D. ↑,
63', Neira C. ↓, Delgadillo N. ↑,
66', Graneros A. ↓, Olivares C. ↑,
66', Arancibia F. ↓, Sandoval K. ↑,
77', Rodas E. ↓, Flores A. ↑,
78', Torres S. ↓, Franco E. ↑,
78', Sinisterra J. ↓, Ascues A. ↑,
90', de la Cruz P. ↓, Camargo I. ↑,
90+2', Olivares C. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grau won 0.

Grau is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Deportivo Garcilaso is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Grau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Grau is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Deportivo Garcilaso: Ascues A. (Injury) Canales E. (Red Card)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Grau won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Grau won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Deportivo Garcilaso	11	7	1	3	18:7	11	22
10	Grau	11	5	2	4	14:13	1	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Grau
Peruvian Liga 1
15.03.26	FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau	0:0 ✺
06.03.26	Atlético Grau - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Atlético Grau	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Atlético Grau - Juan Pablo II College	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Sport Boys - Atlético Grau	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TWLLL
- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
14.03.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Cusco - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.03.26	Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
27.02.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cienciano	2:3 ✺
23.02.26	Moquegua - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
06.08.25	Atlético Grau - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:1
28.02.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Atlético Grau	2:0
22.10.24	Atlético Grau - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:2
12.05.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Atlético Grau	0:0
30.07.23	Atlético Grau - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:1
25.02.23	Deportivo Garcilaso - Atlético Grau	2:0

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