Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 31

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4P
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 1
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 3, Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-africa	SABC Plus, SABC Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN USA, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	RB Leipzig		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.75	6.5	Watch
	1.4	5.25	6.75
	1.44	4.7	6.9
	1.45	5	7.08
	1.44	5.09	6.39	Watch
	1.44	4.4	6
	1.5	4.93	6.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.37)	4.87 ↓ (5.15)	6.65 ↓ (7.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
66.1%

Draw
19.6%

Union Berlin
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

18.4%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.4%

17.6%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for RB Leipzig, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.6%	14.8%	5.6%

RB Leipzig - Union Berlin Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - RB Leipzig (2.31) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (42 of 51 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.89% – 92.81%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Union Berlin (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 5. Bitshiabu E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 20. Ouedraogo A. 24. Schlager X. (C) 14. Baumgartner C. 49. Diomande Y. 40. Romulo Cardoso 7. Nusa A.	1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 4. Leite D. 28. Trimmel C. (C) 8. Khedira R. 19. Haberer J. 15. Rothe T. 7. Burke O. 13. Schafer A. 23. Ilic A.
Substitutes
9. Bakayoko J. 27. Gomis T. 10. Gruda B. 1. Gulacsi P. (G) 11. Harder C. 39. Henrichs B. 16. Klostermann L. 33. Maksimovic A. 19. Nedeljkovic K.	10. Ansah I. 9. Burcu L. 18. Juranovic J. 6. Kemlein A. 25. Klaus C. (G) 39. Kohn D. 33. Kral A. 34. Nsoki S. 21. Skarke T.
Coaches
Werner O.	Eta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Finkgrafe M. ⚽,
25', 2 - 0, Romulo Cardoso ⚽,
31', Ronnow F. ↓, Klaus C. ↑,
34', Baumgartner C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Ilic A. ↓, Ansah I. ↑,
59', Haberer J. ↓, Kemlein A. ↑,
59', Trimmel C. ↓, Juranovic J. ↑,
63', 3 - 0, Baku R. ⚽, Diomande Y. (A),
68', Ouedraogo A. ↓, Harder C. ↑,
68', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Gruda B. ↑,
78', 3 - 1, Doekhi D. ⚽, Juranovic J. (A),
79', Diomande Y. ↓, Bakayoko J. ↑,
79', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
83', Schafer A. ↓, Burcu L. ↑,
84', Leite D. 🟨,
90', Nusa A. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 2.

RB Leipzig is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Union Berlin has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, RB Leipzig is the clear favorite.

We predict that RB Leipzig will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:20. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:8. (average 1.8:0.9).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 2.84% Union Berlin: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9:5	4	6
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4:17	-13	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
18.04.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig	1:3 ✺
11.04.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
20.03.26	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	5:0 ✺
15.03.26	Stuttgart - RB Leipzig	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWWL
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
18.04.26	Union Berlin - Wolfsburg	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Heidenheim - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
15.03.26	Freiburg - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
12.12.25	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	3:1
01.02.25	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	0:0
14.09.24	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	0:0
04.02.24	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	2:0
03.09.23	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	0:3
11.02.23	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	1:2
20.08.22	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	2:1

Upcoming Matches