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RB Leipzig - Union Berlin

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Match Info

  • Bundesliga - Round 31
  • Date: 24 April 2026, Friday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
    • CountryKick-OffTV Channels
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    RB Leipzig Union Berlin
    RB Leipzig Union Berlin
    1 X 2
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    (Initially)    		 1.45 ↑
    (1.37)    		 4.87 ↓
    (5.15)    		 6.65 ↓
    (7.7)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

    • The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    RB Leipzig
    66.1%    		Draw
    19.6%    		Union Berlin
    14.4%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    69.3% 18.4% 12.3%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    72.4% 16.5% 11.1%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)
  • Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+6.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for RB Leipzig, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    79.6% 14.8% 5.6%

    RB Leipzig - Union Berlin Predictions

  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.5 - RB Leipzig (2.31) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (42 of 51 users predict this - 82.35%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 71.89% โ€“ 92.81%.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Union Berlin (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    26. BelgiumVandevoordt M. (G)
    17. GermanyBaku R.
      4. HungaryOrban W.
      5. FranceBitshiabu E.
    35. GermanyFinkgrafe M.
    20. GermanyOuedraogo A.
    24. AustriaSchlager X. (C)
    14. AustriaBaumgartner C.
    49. IvoryDiomande Y.
    40. BrazilRomulo Cardoso
      7. NorwayNusa A.
    		  1. DenmarkRonnow F. (G)
      5. NetherlandsDoekhi D.
    14. AustriaQuerfeld L.
      4. PortugalLeite D.
    28. AustriaTrimmel C. (C)
      8. TunisiaKhedira R.
    19. GermanyHaberer J.
    15. GermanyRothe T.
      7. ScotlandBurke O.
    13. HungarySchafer A.
    23. SerbiaIlic A.
    Substitutes
      9. BelgiumBakayoko J.
    27. FranceGomis T.
    10. GermanyGruda B.
      1. HungaryGulacsi P. (G)
    11. DenmarkHarder C.
    39. GermanyHenrichs B.
    16. GermanyKlostermann L.
    33. SerbiaMaksimovic A.
    19. SerbiaNedeljkovic K.
    		10. GermanyAnsah I.
      9. TurkeyBurcu L.
    18. CroatiaJuranovic J.
      6. GermanyKemlein A.
    25. GermanyKlaus C. (G)
    39. GhanaKohn D.
    33. CzechKral A.
    34. FranceNsoki S.
    21. GermanySkarke T.
    Coaches
         GermanyWerner O.
    		     GermanyEta M.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (2 - 0)
    • 22', 1 - 0, Finkgrafe M. ⚽,
    • 25', 2 - 0, Romulo Cardoso ⚽,
    • 31', Ronnow F. ↓, Klaus C. ↑,
    • 34', Baumgartner C. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
    • 59', Ilic A. ↓, Ansah I. ↑,
    • 59', Haberer J. ↓, Kemlein A. ↑,
    • 59', Trimmel C. ↓, Juranovic J. ↑,
    • 63', 3 - 0, Baku R. ⚽, Diomande Y. (A),
    • 68', Ouedraogo A. ↓, Harder C. ↑,
    • 68', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Gruda B. ↑,
    • 78', 3 - 1, Doekhi D. ⚽, Juranovic J. (A),
    • 79', Diomande Y. ↓, Bakayoko J. ↑,
    • 79', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
    • 83', Schafer A. ↓, Burcu L. ↑,
    • 84', Leite D. 🟨,
    • 90', Nusa A. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,

    Preview

  • Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 11).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 2.
  • RB Leipzig is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
  • Union Berlin has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins โ€“ 1).
  • In this match, RB Leipzig is the clear favorite.
  • We predict that RB Leipzig will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.
  • In the last 18 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:20. (average 1.6:1.1).
  • Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:8. (average 1.8:0.9).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    5RB Leipzig740320:11912
    17Union Berlin71336:18-126

    Outrights of German Bundesliga for now
    RB Leipzig: 2.15% Union Berlin: 0.14%
    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - RB Leipzig
    German Bundesliga
    18.04.26 Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig 1:3 ✺
    11.04.26 RB Leipzig - Borussia Mรถnchengladbach 1:0 ✺
    04.04.26 Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig 1:2 ✺
    20.03.26 RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim 5:0 ✺
    15.03.26 Stuttgart - RB Leipzig 1:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6
    WWWWL
    - Union Berlin
    German Bundesliga
    18.04.26 Union Berlin - Wolfsburg 1:2 ✺
    11.04.26 Heidenheim - Union Berlin 3:1 ✺
    05.04.26 Union Berlin - St. Pauli 1:1 ✺
    21.03.26 Bayern Munich - Union Berlin 4:0 ✺
    15.03.26 Freiburg - Union Berlin 0:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7
    LLTLW
    Latest Head to Head
    German Bundesliga
    12.12.25 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 3:1
    01.02.25 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 0:0
    14.09.24 RB Leipzig - Union Berlin 0:0
    04.02.24 RB Leipzig - Union Berlin 2:0
    03.09.23 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 0:3
    11.02.23 RB Leipzig - Union Berlin 1:2
    20.08.22 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 2:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - RB Leipzig
    UEFA Champions League
    04.11.26 RB Leipzig - Manchester City ✺
    German Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Schalke 04 - RB Leipzig ✺
    - Union Berlin
    German Bundesliga
    01.11.26 Union Berlin - Kรถln ✺

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