Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 20 August 2024, Tuesday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Gonzalez F. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Fox Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, FuboTV
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Sporty TV
North-central-america	ESPNPlay Caribbean
Peru	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-america	ESPN 5 South, ESPN South
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Usa	beIN Connect, FuboTV, Tubi TV
World	Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Atlético Mineiro		San Lorenzo

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.2	7.5	Watch
	1.47	4	8
	1.47	3.75	8.5	Watch
	1.47	4.07	8.71
	1.49	3.95	8.06	Watch
	1.4	3.8	8	Watch
	1.48	4.01	8.6	Watch
	1.47	3.75	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.78)	3.94 ↑ (3.5)	8.23 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Network on TV: beIN SPORTS Xtra

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
64.6%

Draw
24%

San Lorenzo
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

27%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

26.6%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Mineiro's performance.

San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Lorenzo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Mineiro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Lorenzo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	7.1%	14.3%

Atlético Mineiro - San Lorenzo Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Mineiro will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (G) 21. Battaglia R. 3. Bruno Fuchs 8. Alonso J. 6. Gustavo Scarpa 5. Otavio 15. Zaracho M. 13. Guilherme Arana (C) 23. Franco A. 10. Paulinho 9. Deyverson	25. Gomez G. (G) 30. Arias N. 4. Romana J. 22. Campi G. (C) 37. Baez E. 24. Tripichio N. 40. Sosa S. 17. Irala E. 41. Leguizamon I. 28. Cuello A. 8. Reali M.
Substitutes
14. Alan Kardec 45. Alisson 20. Bernard 42. Cadu 11. Eduardo Vargas 18. Fausto Vera 17. Igor Gomes 2. Lyanco 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 30. Palacios Alzate B. 26. Renzo Saravia 44. Rubens	31. Alassia G. 13. Altamirano F. (G) 10. Barrios N. 29. Blanco S. 32. Bruera F. 77. Bustos N. 7. Cerutti E. 14. Hausch A. 36. Herrera D. 35. Lujan G. 20. Porra T. 9. Vombergar A.
Coaches
Milito G.	Romagnoli L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Baez E. 🟨,
37', Tripichio N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Deyverson ↓, Eduardo Vargas ↑,
46', Zaracho M. ↓, Bernard ↑,
48', Otavio 🟨,
55', Otavio ↓, Fausto Vera ↑,
65', 1 - 0, Battaglia R. ⚽, Gustavo Scarpa (A),
71', Campi G. 🟨,
71', Sosa S. ↓, Blanco S. ↑,
73', Bruno Fuchs ↓, Renzo Saravia ↑,
74', Franco A. 🟨,
78', Tripichio N. ↓, Barrios N. ↑,
78', Leguizamon I. ↓, Vombergar A. ↑,
89', Gustavo Scarpa 🟨,
90+3', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Lyanco ↑,
90+4', Baez E. ↓, Bruera F. ↑,
90+5', Irala E. ↓, Bustos N. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-1.

Recent matches Atlético MG is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

San Lorenzo is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Atlético MG is certain favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Atlético MG won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético MG won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
17.08.24	Atlético Mineiro - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.08.24	San Lorenzo - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.08.24	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Atlético Mineiro - CRB Maceio	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.24	Criciúma - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTTWL
- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.08.24	Boca Juniors - San Lorenzo	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.08.24	San Lorenzo - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.08.24	San Lorenzo - Atlético Tucumán	0:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
06.08.24	San Lorenzo - Vélez Sársfield	1:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.08.24	Independiente - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
13.08.24	San Lorenzo - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
Copa Sudamericana
08.05.18	Atlético Mineiro - San Lorenzo	0:0
11.04.18	San Lorenzo - Atlético Mineiro	1:0

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