Match Info

Serie B - Round 16

Date: 3 July 2025, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Atlético Vinotinto		Leones del Norte

	1	X	2
	2.62	2.98	2.58	Watch
	2.63	3.01	2.69
				Watch
	3	2.9	2.3
	2.66	2.78	2.67	Watch
	2.98	3	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.32)	2.93 ↓ (3.1)	2.5 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Vinotinto
32.7%

Draw
31%

Leones del Norte
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

29.8%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

29.2%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Vinotinto's form might have worsened.

Leones del Norte has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leones del Norte's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Vinotinto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leones del Norte, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	53.8%	15.4%

Atlético Vinotinto - Leones del Norte Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Atlético Vinotinto will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Leones del Norte will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Vinotinto (votes: 1 - 25%). Leones del Norte (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Atlético Vinotinto (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Vinotinto (votes: 2 - 40%). Leones del Norte (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Leones del Norte may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Atlético Vinotinto won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Vinotinto
Ecuadorian Serie B
26.06.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Guayaquil City	3:2 ✺
18.06.25	Independiente Juniors - Atlético Vinotinto	3:0 ✺
12.06.25	Atlético Vinotinto - San Antonio	1:1 ✺
04.06.25	Vargas Torres - Atlético Vinotinto	2:2 ✺
28.05.25	Atlético Vinotinto - 9 de Octubre	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLTTL
- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Serie B
24.06.25	Leones del Norte - Vargas Torres	3:2 ✺
19.06.25	Cumbayá - Leones del Norte	0:0 ✺
11.06.25	Leones del Norte - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
03.06.25	9 de Octubre - Leones del Norte	1:0 ✺
27.05.25	Leones del Norte - San Antonio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
23.04.25	Leones del Norte - Atlético Vinotinto	2:0

Atlético Vinotinto - Leones del Norte: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide