Match Info

Serie B - Promotion Group - Round 3

Date: 11 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra (Ibarra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping


	Leones del Norte		Gualaceo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.54	2.82	3.29
	2.37	2.65	3.62	Watch
	2.46	2.71	3.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (1.85)	2.73 ↓ (3.15)	3.44 ↓ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones del Norte
38.2%

Draw
34.5%

Gualaceo
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.2%

29.4%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

28.3%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones del Norte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leones del Norte's form might have worsened.

Gualaceo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gualaceo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leones del Norte, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gualaceo than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gualaceo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Leones del Norte - Gualaceo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Leones del Norte will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Gualaceo will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gualaceo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, ⚽,
35', 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 1 - 1, Godoy W. ⚽,
54', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones del Norte won 1.

Leones del Norte is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Gualaceo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leones del Norte may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Leones del Norte is a strong favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Leones del Norte won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Leones del Norte won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:2. (average 0:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Serie B
03.09.25	Independiente Juniors - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
27.08.25	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
21.08.25	Leones del Norte - Orense	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
15.08.25	Leones del Norte - Imbabura	2:0 ✺
10.08.25	San Antonio - Leones del Norte	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 TLWWW
- Gualaceo SC
Ecuadorian Serie B
04.09.25	Gualaceo - Guayaquil City	2:0 ✺
26.08.25	9 de Octubre - Gualaceo	3:0 ✺
17.08.25	Chacaritas - Gualaceo	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
14.08.25	Gualaceo - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
10.08.25	Gualaceo - Guayaquil City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
11.06.25	Leones del Norte - Gualaceo	0:0
02.04.25	Gualaceo - Leones del Norte	2:2
01.10.24	Gualaceo - Leones del Norte	0:2
13.08.24	Leones del Norte - Gualaceo	0:1
09.06.24	Leones del Norte - Gualaceo	0:1
17.04.24	Gualaceo - Leones del Norte	2:1

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