Match Info

Serie B - Promotion Group - Round 8

Date: 16 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra (Ibarra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping


	Leones del Norte		San Antonio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.5	3.66	7.49
	1.62	3.38	6.07	Watch
	1.49	3.62	6.61	Watch
	1.68	3.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.64)	3.47 ↑ (3.38)	6.17 ↑ (5.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones del Norte
58.5%

Draw
26.6%

San Antonio
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

27%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

22.4%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones del Norte has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

San Antonio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leones del Norte that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Antonio than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Antonio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Leones del Norte - San Antonio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leones del Norte (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Leones del Norte will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
68', 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones del Norte won 3.

Leones del Norte has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

San Antonio has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

San Antonio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Leones del Norte is seen as the favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Leones del Norte won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 0.9:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Leones del Norte won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Serie B
11.10.25	Gualaceo - Leones del Norte	2:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
08.10.25	Leones del Norte - Emelec	0:1 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
03.10.25	Leones del Norte - Independiente Juniors	1:0 ✺
25.09.25	Leones del Norte - 9 de Octubre	0:0 ✺
17.09.25	San Antonio - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWTT
- San Antonio Ibarra FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
12.10.25	San Antonio - Guayaquil City	1:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
09.10.25	San Antonio - LDU Quito	0:4 ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
30.09.25	9 de Octubre - San Antonio	1:1 ✺
25.09.25	Gualaceo - San Antonio	2:2 ✺
17.09.25	San Antonio - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
17.09.25	San Antonio - Leones del Norte	1:1
10.08.25	San Antonio - Leones del Norte	1:2
27.05.25	Leones del Norte - San Antonio	1:0
17.09.24	San Antonio - Leones del Norte	0:1
30.07.24	Leones del Norte - San Antonio	0:0
12.06.24	San Antonio - Leones del Norte	0:1
24.04.24	Leones del Norte - San Antonio	0:1

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