Match Info

Serie B - Promotion Group - Round 9

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer (Guayaquil)


	9 de Octubre		Leones del Norte

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.07	2.85	2.25
	3.87	3.32	1.93	Watch
	3.29	2.91	2.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↓ (3.87)	3.03 ↓ (3.32)	2.13 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

9 de Octubre
26.8%

Draw
30.2%

Leones del Norte
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24%

27.9%

48.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

27.6%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

9 de Octubre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Leones del Norte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leones del Norte might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for 9 de Octubre than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leones del Norte could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

9 de Octubre - Leones del Norte Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, 9 de Octubre won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Leones del Norte may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Leones del Norte has had a series of home games.

Leones del Norte is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, 9 de Octubre won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 0.6:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, 9 de Octubre won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 0.7:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 9 de Octubre FC
Ecuadorian Copa
22.10.25	Cuenca Juniors - 9 de Octubre	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
18.10.25	Guayaquil City - 9 de Octubre	1:1 ✺
07.10.25	9 de Octubre - Independiente Juniors	2:1 ✺
30.09.25	9 de Octubre - San Antonio	1:1 ✺
25.09.25	Leones del Norte - 9 de Octubre	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LTWTT
- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Serie B
16.10.25	Leones del Norte - San Antonio	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Gualaceo - Leones del Norte	2:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
08.10.25	Leones del Norte - Emelec	0:1 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
03.10.25	Leones del Norte - Independiente Juniors	1:0 ✺
25.09.25	Leones del Norte - 9 de Octubre	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
25.09.25	Leones del Norte - 9 de Octubre	0:0
03.06.25	9 de Octubre - Leones del Norte	1:0
27.03.25	Leones del Norte - 9 de Octubre	1:1
07.09.24	9 de Octubre - Leones del Norte	1:0
18.07.24	Leones del Norte - 9 de Octubre	0:0
15.05.24	9 de Octubre - Leones del Norte	0:0
22.03.24	Leones del Norte - 9 de Octubre	2:1

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