Match Info

Premier League - Round 16

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Turkestan Arena (Turkestan)

Referee: Nozhenko S. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Atyrau		Kaspiy Aktau

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.78	3.10	4.20
	1.72	3.20	4.10	Watch
	1.92	3.20	4.84
	1.83	3.36	4.11	Watch
	1.86	2.75	4.75
	1.88	3.38	4.16
	1.84	3.10	4.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (1.94)	3.16 ↑ (2.96)	4.35 ↑ (4.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Atyrau
49.9%

Draw
29%

Kaspiy Aktau
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

31.1%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

30.3%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atyrau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Kaspiy Aktau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atyrau than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Kaspiy Aktau aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Atyrau - Kaspiy Aktau Predictions

Users Predictions: Atyrau will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Khatkevich E. (G) 2. Tkachenko Y. 78. Khvalko E. 5. Satanov S. 21. Orynbasar D. 55. Noyok O. 4. Rabiu M. 17. Kalmuratov K. (C) 14. Dorofeev K. 44. Maksimovic D. 7. Henrique	24. Zhomart D. (G) 21. Aripov D. 14. Amaral A. 30. Morgado B. 19. Taykenov M. 13. Serikbay M. 23. Nabikhanov A. (C) 26. Sedko P. 17. Klimovich V. 11. Ndombasi N. 9. Abylaykhan R.
Substitutes
9. Abdulla A. 27. Berdesh N. 99. Kereev B. 77. Pangerey M. 71. Prce F. 12. Sagat N. (G) 11. Seytkaliev A. 23. Shaykhov B. 35. Tokhtarov N. (G) 18. Trufanov Y. 90. Yusov D. 25. Zhumagali S.	1. Ayazbaev N. (G) 16. Baydavletov A. 29. Bekmyrza A. 55. Elemes N. 15. Epton D. 27. Esimbekov D. 7. Kabylan B. 60. Kaldybay B. (G) 18. Kucheriavyi M. 93. Sylla K. 10. Umaev I. 47. Usenov D.
Coaches
Cheburin V.	Shoytymov E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Ndombasi N. ⚽,
33', Noyok O. 🟨,
37', Amaral A. 🟨,
40', Orynbasar D. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Khvalko E. ⚽, Kalmuratov K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Taykenov M. ↓, Bekmyrza A. ↑,
55', Kalmuratov K. 🟨,
56', Orynbasar D. ↓, Berdesh N. ↑,
61', Tkachenko Y. ↓, Prce F. ↑,
62', Serikbay M. ↓, Usenov D. ↑,
67', Abylaykhan R. 🟨,
72', 1 - 2, Abylaykhan R. ⚽, Usenov D. (A),
77', Henrique ↓, Trufanov Y. ↑,
77', Rabiu M. ↓, Seytkaliev A. ↑,
79', Abylaykhan R. ↓, Sylla K. ↑,
83', Ndombasi N. ↓, Umaev I. ↑,
84', Sedko P. ↓, Epton D. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 2.

Atyrau has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kaspiy's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atyrau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Atyrau has had a series of away games.

Atyrau is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Atyrau won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Kaspij Aktau	26	8	5	13	27:36	-9	29
15	Atyrau	25	4	11	10	18:28	-10	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Atyrau
Kazakh Premier League
27.06.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Atyrau	2:0 ✺
21.06.26	Yelimay Semey - Atyrau	1:2 ✺
13.06.26	Kairat - Atyrau	1:1 ✺
28.05.26	Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay	1:1 ✺
23.05.26	Zhetysu - Atyrau	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 LWTTT
- FC Kaspiy Aktau
Kazakh Premier League
27.06.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Atyrau	2:0 ✺
20.06.26	Ordabasy - Kaspiy Aktau	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Kaisar	1:2 ✺
28.05.26	Zhenis - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0 ✺
22.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Ertis Pavlodar	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
27.06.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Atyrau	2:0
12.08.23	Atyrau - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0
07.05.23	Kaspiy Aktau - Atyrau	1:1
04.09.22	Atyrau - Kaspiy Aktau	3:2
16.04.22	Kaspiy Aktau - Atyrau	2:1
18.09.21	Kaspiy Aktau - Atyrau	2:1
02.05.21	Atyrau - Kaspiy Aktau	2:1

Upcoming Matches