The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Kaspiy Aktau 39.9%
Draw 28.6%
Ertis Pavlodar 31.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
31.9%
29.9%
38.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
31.2%
29.2%
39.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kaspiy Aktau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kaspiy Aktau's performance.
Ertis Pavlodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ertis Pavlodar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kaspiy Aktau than the current prediction. (-8.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kaspiy Aktau that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (+7.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ertis Pavlodar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
33.3%
0%
66.7%
Kaspiy Aktau - Ertis Pavlodar Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Kaspiy will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ertis will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
24. Zhomart D. (G) 21. Aripov D. 14. Amaral A. 30. Morgado B. 19. Taykenov M. 23. Nabikhanov A. 5. Strumia L. 10. Umaev I. 7. Kabylan B. 11. Ndombasi N. 99. Gustavo Franca
16. Botnar V. (G) 27. Nechaev D. 5. Toleuov B. 33. Ibrahim F. 15. Nyrkov D. 8. Zharynbetov S. 6. Shimamura Y. 98. Sedko P. 7. Klimovich V. 97. Poe J. 18. Shvyrev V.
Substitutes
1. Ayazbaev N. (G) 29. Bekmyrza A. 67. Berdibek D. 55. Elemes N. 18. Kucheriavyi M. 15. Serikbay A. 13. Serikbay M. 9. Zulfikarov B.
10. Agimanov T. 13. Baybosynov N. 21. Buranchiev A. 12. Karimov R. 4. Khadarkevich R. 19. Popov A. 14. Raskatov V. 1. Rikhard M. (G) 20. Usenov A.
Coaches
Shoytymov E.
Zhumaskaliyev N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Umaev I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Sedko P. ↓, Agimanov T. ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Poe J. ⚽, Shvyrev V. (A),
55', Nyrkov D. 🟨,
58', Nabikhanov A. ↓, Serikbay M. ↑,
58', Kabylan B. ↓, Kucheriavyi M. ↑,
60', Nyrkov D. ↓, Karimov R. ↑,
75', Umaev I. ↓, Berdibek D. ↑,
75', Gustavo Franca ↓, Zulfikarov B. ↑,
77', Shvyrev V. ↓, Baybosynov N. ↑,
78', Aripov D. 🟨,
82', Morgado B. 🟨,
84', 2 - 1, Zulfikarov B. ⚽, Berdibek D. (A),
84', Zulfikarov B. 🟨,
89', Taykenov M. ↓, Bekmyrza A. ↑,
90', Shimamura Y. ↓, Buranchiev A. ↑,
90', Zharynbetov S. ↓, Raskatov V. ↑,
90', 2 - 2, Poe J. ⚽,
Preview
This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).
Recent performances by Kaspiy have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Ertis is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Recently, Kaspiy has had a series of away games.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Kaspiy won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:0. (average 2.3:0).
Including home matches between the teams, Kaspiy won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).
Kazakhstan
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Zhomart D. (G) 
Amaral A. 
Strumia L. 
Umaev I. 
Ndombasi N. 
Gustavo Franca 
Nechaev D. 
Ibrahim F. 
Shimamura Y. 
Poe J. 
Kucheriavyi M. 
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