Match Info

National - Round 28

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday

Location: Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny (Aubagne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN App
Ecuador	DAZN App
France	BFM Marseille Provence, FFF TV
Mexico	DAZN App
Paraguay	DAZN App
Peru	DAZN App
World	FIFA+


	Aubagne		Châteauroux

	1	X	2
	2.52	3.15	2.62
	2.78	3.11	2.72
	2.54	3.26	2.54	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.63
	2.63	2.94	2.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.43)	3.07 ↓ (3.25)	2.61 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aubagne
35.3%

Draw
29.8%

Châteauroux
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

28.1%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

27%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aubagne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Châteauroux has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aubagne than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Châteauroux than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Aubagne - Châteauroux Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nouichi M. (G) 21. Ali Hamidou N. D. 5. Chibani N. 26. Nehari M. (C) 13. Abdallah M. 17. Ndiaye O. 4. Diaby A. 34. El Kaddouri B. 18. Oudjani A. 19. Berrabha D. 9. Tlili K.	16. Lavallee L. (G) 23. Djaha A. 4. Diarra D. (C) 28. Mopila S. 8. Dembele S. 27. Boussaid W. 5. Wade P. 21. Chahid Y. 24. Goncalves A. 9. Mupemba N. 10. Freitas R.
Substitutes
28. Bentoumi M. 31. El Asrar M. 33. Hamadi K. 14. Mayilla E. 12. M'Dahoma K.	30. Ba M. (G) 12. Koembo J. 26. Sako B. 25. Traore G. 14. Verdier Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Chahid Y. ⚽, Freitas R. (A),
20', Ndiaye O. ↓, El Asrar M. ↑,
34', El Kaddouri B. 🟨,
35', Wade P. (Penalty Awarded),
35', Boussaid W. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Tlili K. 🟨,
57', Boussaid W. ↓, Sako B. ↑,
58', Chahid Y. 🟨,
64', Chibani N. ↓, Bentoumi M. ↑,
70', Wade P. ↓, Traore G. ↑,
73', Oudjani A. ↓, Mayilla E. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Nehari M. ⚽,
79', Freitas R. ↓, Koembo J. ↑,
80', Mupemba N. ↓, Verdier Y. ↑,
85', Nehari M. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 and 14).

Aubagne is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Châteauroux has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Aubagne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aubagne won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:4. (average 5.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Aubagne won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Aubagne	9	2	1	6	6:12	-6	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Aubagne Air Bel
French Ligue 3
27.03.26	Valenciennes - Aubagne	0:0 ✺
20.03.26	Aubagne - Sochaux	1:4 ✺
13.03.26	Dijon - Aubagne	2:1 ✺
06.03.26	Aubagne - Fleury 91	1:2 ✺
27.02.26	Versailles - Aubagne	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TLLLL
- Châteauroux
French Ligue 3
27.03.26	Châteauroux - Concarneau	3:1 ✺
17.03.26	Stade Briochin - Châteauroux	2:0 ✺
13.03.26	Châteauroux - Villefranche	0:1 ✺
06.03.26	Caen - Châteauroux	2:2 ✺
27.02.26	Châteauroux - Paris 13 Atletico	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
31.10.25	Châteauroux - Aubagne	0:3
25.04.25	Aubagne - Châteauroux	6:2
13.12.24	Châteauroux - Aubagne	2:7

Aubagne - Châteauroux: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide