Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 10

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny (Aubagne) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
France	14:45	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	14:45	Ligue 1+
United Kingdom	13:45	Ligue 1+


	Aubagne		Le Puy

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.25	1.98
	3.2	3.2	2.08
	3.51	3.43	2.13
	3.23	3.34	2.07	Watch
	3.4	3.35	2.06
	3.23	3.18	2.08
	3.2	3.25	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.88)	3.29 ↑ (3.24)	2.07 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aubagne
27.9%

Draw
27.9%

Le Puy
44.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.8%

28.2%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

27.3%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aubagne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Le Puy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aubagne than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Puy than the current prediction. (-3%)

Aubagne - Le Puy Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Toure I. (G) 2. Sadi A. 5. Doucoure R. 26. Nehari M. (C) 23. Aradj Y. 19. Doukansy B. 37. Faiz A. 31. M'Changama Y. 18. Oudjani A. 10. Cisse K. 17. Porsan Clemente J.	1. Carvalho M. (G) 12. Lebouath S. 2. Vinicius Gomes 19. Ghalem T. 3. Seidou E. 13. Fatahine A. 10. Xhemo R. (C) 18. Gauthier A. 21. Baret L. 17. Nsingi P. 9. Faty M.
Substitutes
22. Bouaziz W. 35. Diakite I. 16. Moreira T. (G) 27. Sahraoui J. 6. Tafni A. 11. Tafni B. 4. Valme R.	5. Dembele M. 27. Ducourtioux I. 11. Emmanuel M. 14. Mazaudier M. 40. Roperti A. (G) 6. Zahibo W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sadi A. ↓, Diakite I. ↑,
46', Oudjani A. ↓, Sahraoui J. ↑,
53', Lebouath S. ↓, Zahibo W. ↑,
59', Nsingi P. ↓, Emmanuel M. ↑,
62', Doukansy B. 🟨,
64', Nehari M. 🟨,
64', 0 - 1, Zahibo W. ⚽, Baret L. (A),
68', Faiz A. ↓, Bouaziz W. ↑,
69', Faty M. 🟨,
75', Doukansy B. ↓, Tafni A. ↑,
88', Gauthier A. ↓, Ducourtioux I. ↑,
88', Faty M. ↓, Mazaudier M. ↑,
88', Cisse K. ↓, Tafni B. ↑,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 16th in the Relegation and 8th).

Aubagne is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Le Puy has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, Aubagne has faced a series of away games on the road.

Le Puy is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Aubagne has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 5:5 (averaging 1.3:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Aubagne against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 3:4 goals (averaging 1:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Le Puy-en-Velay	10	5	1	4	12:9	3	16
16	Aubagne	10	2	1	7	6:13	-7	7

Outrights of French Ligue 3 for now

Le Puy-en-Velay: 4.73%

Last Results with these Odds

Aubagne - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 31.78%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Le Puy - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 39.97%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Aubagne Air Bel
French Ligue 3
03.10.26	La Roche VF - Aubagne	3:1 ✺
26.09.26	Fleury 91 - Aubagne	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Rouen FC - Aubagne	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Aubagne - Concarneau	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Aubagne	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLLT
- Le Puy Foot 43 Auvergne
French Ligue 3
03.10.26	Le Puy - Thionville Lusitanos	1:0 ✺
26.09.26	Valenciennes - Le Puy	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Le Puy - Villefranche	4:1 ✺
12.09.26	Quevilly - Le Puy	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Le Puy - Orleans	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
10.04.26	Le Puy - Aubagne	1:2
07.11.25	Aubagne - Le Puy	1:4
French National 1 - Group A
02.12.23	Aubagne - Le Puy	0:0
Coupe De France
16.11.13	Aubagne - Le Puy	2:0

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