Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Skonto stadions (Riga)

Referee: Kubryak D. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Disney+
Sweden	Disney+
United-kingdom	Solidsport TV


	Auda Riga		Larne

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4	Watch
	1.7	3.5	4.75
	1.66	3.49	4.43
				Watch
	1.85	3.5	4
	1.72	3.72	5.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.95)	3.54 ↑ (3.4)	4.49 ↑ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Auda Riga
53.3%

Draw
26.1%

Larne
20.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.3%

27.1%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

27.4%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auda Riga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Auda Riga's performance.

Larne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Auda Riga than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Auda Riga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Larne than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.8%	25.6%	2.6%

Auda Riga - Larne Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Auda will win (votes: 27 - 73%). Larne will win (votes: 1 - 2.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 24.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Auda: 58.7% – 87.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Auda (votes: 14 - 60.9%). Larne (votes: 1 - 4.3%). Tie (votes: 8 - 34.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Auda (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Auda (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Auda (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Larne (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Auda (votes: 17 - 63%). Larne (votes: 2 - 7.4%). Tie (votes: 8 - 29.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ozols R. (G) 2. Hrvoj T. 21. Melniks D. 13. Paulo Eduardo 3. Erquiaga I. 14. Varslavans R. 7. Clemente M. 8. Nguena K. (C) 71. Rubenis O. 47. Kone K. 10. Traore A.	1. Ferguson R. (G) 23. Cosgrove T. (C) 19. Nolan R. 4. Donnelly A. 8. Randall M. 26. Bent D. 6. Gallagher C. 11. Graham S. 22. McEneff J. 9. O'Neill P. 7. McKendry C.
Substitutes
25. Abdul K. S. 29. Aleksandrovs N. (G) 77. Camara O. 11. Jackson Kenio 99. Jeudi S. 36. Kane M. 79. Kone I. 9. Monteiro E. 22. Ogunji A. 46. Ramiro J.	36. Graham D. (G) 42. Hastings J. 17. Kee J. 30. Lusty M. 14. Magee B. 10. O'Connor T. 3. Ridley M. 47. Simpson J. 25. Sloan D. 46. Wallace L.
Coaches
Kalns J.	Rooney N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Randall M. 🟨,
20', Cosgrove T. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Traore A. ⚽, Rubenis O. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Kone K. ↓, Monteiro E. ↑,
46', McEneff J. ↓, Sloan D. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, McKendry C. ⚽, Randall M. (A),
53', 2 - 1, Monteiro E. ⚽, Rubenis O. (A),
63', Nolan R. ↓, Ridley M. ↑,
65', Rubenis O. ↓, Ramiro J. ↑,
65', Traore A. ↓, Jackson Kenio ↑,
66', 2 - 2, O'Neill P. ⚽, Sloan D. (A),
76', Monteiro E. 🟨,
78', Randall M. ↓, Magee B. ↑,
78', McKendry C. ↓, Lusty M. ↑,
90', Hrvoj T. ↓, Ogunji A. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
102', Ramiro J. ↓, Jeudi S. ↑,
106', Lusty M. ↓, O'Connor T. ↑,
106', Cosgrove T. ↓, Kee J. ↑,
120', Jackson Kenio ↓, Camara O. ↑,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Gallagher C. (Pen),
1, Nguena K. (Pen),
2, O'Neill P. (Pen),
2, Jeudi S. (Pen),
3, Bent D. (Pen),
3, Varslavans R. (Pen),
4, O'Connor T. (Pen),
4, Camara O. (Pen),

Preview

1st leg result: 0-0. 2nd leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Larne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Auda is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Auda won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Auda Riga
UEFA Europa Conference League
10.07.25	Larne - Auda Riga	0:0 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
05.07.25	Auda Riga - Jelgava	2:0 ✺
01.07.25	Super Nova - Auda Riga	0:1 ✺
27.06.25	Auda Riga - Riga	1:3 ✺
22.06.25	RFS - Auda Riga	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TWWLL
- Larne FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
10.07.25	Larne - Auda Riga	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.07.25	Larne - Portadown	3:0 ✺
23.06.25	Falkirk - Larne	N/A
21.06.25	Stranraer - Larne	0:1 ✺
17.06.25	Larne - The New Saints	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TW?WT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
10.07.25	Larne - Auda Riga	0:0

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