Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 3

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished 📅 Remind Me

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 1, Tring Sport 3
Argentina	10:30	Disney+, ESPN 2
Australia	23:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	15:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	10:30	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	16:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	21:30	Migu
Colombia	08:30	ESPN 2
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 2
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	15:30	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Germany	15:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports Prime
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	15:30	Arena 4
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	Vision+
Indonesia	20:30	iNews, K-Vision, Vidio
Israel	16:30	Sport 3
Italy	15:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	20:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	15:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	07:30	Sky Sport
Mongolia	21:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	01:30	TVWan Sports 2
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Peru	08:30	Disney+, Fox Sports
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 3, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	14:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 1, SportKlub 2
Singapore	21:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	15:30	Voyo
Slovenia	15:30	Sport TV1
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, ESPN 5 South
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	15:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	16:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	16:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	14:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	20:30	TV 360
International	13:30	Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Augsburg

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.3	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.4
	2.18	3.35	3.45	Watch
	2.16	3.43	3.6
	2.20	3.19	3.39	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.2	Watch
	2.22	3.53	3.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (2.16)	3.35 ↓ (3.5)	3.41 ↑ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
43.7%

Draw
28.4%

Augsburg
27.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.3%

27.3%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

27.6%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Augsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.4%	19%	28.6%

St. Pauli - Augsburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 11 - 52.4%). Augsburg will win (votes: 6 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 31% – 73.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Augsburg (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Augsburg (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. (C) 25. Dzwigala A. 11. Pyrka A. 6. Sands J. 16. Fujita J. 23. Oppie L. 10. Sinani D. 27. Hountondji A. 28. Pereira Lage M.	1. Dahmen F. (G) 5. Matsima C. 6. Gouweleeuw J. (C) 16. Zesiger C. 27. Wolf M. 8. Rexhbecaj E. 4. Massengo H. 17. Jakic K. 32. Rieder F. 26. Saad E. 36. Komur M.
Substitutes
17. Afolayan O. 20. Ahlstrand E. 7. Irvine J. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 2. Saliakas M. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	40. Banks N. 20. Claude-Maurice A. 28. Dardari A. 19. Fellhauer R. 11. Gharbi I. 22. Labrovic N. (G) 10. Maier A. 3. Pedersen M. 21. Tietz P.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Wagner S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Rieder F. ⚽, Massengo H. (A),
36', Pyrka A. 🟨,
40', Rexhbecaj E. 🟨,
45', Hountondji A. (Pen),
45', 1 - 1, Hountondji A. ⚽,
45+5', Jakic K. ↓, Fellhauer R. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
46', Pyrka A. ↓, Saliakas M. ↑,
63', Saad E. 🟨,
67', Matsima C. 🟨,
69', Wolf M. ↓, Tietz P. ↑,
69', Saad E. ↓, Claude-Maurice A. ↑,
75', Dzwigala A. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
76', Fellhauer R. 🟨,
77', 2 - 1, Sinani D. ⚽,
84', Massengo H. ↓, Dardari A. ↑,
84', Rieder F. ↓, Gharbi I. ↑,
88', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Afolayan O. ↑,
90+2', Sinani D. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,

Preview

St. Pauli is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Augsburg has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

St. Pauli could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Augsburg: Bauer M. (Injury) Claude-Maurice A. (Ankle Injury) Essende S. (Red Card) Giannoulis D. (Thigh Injury) Komur M. (Toe Injury) Schlotterbeck K. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in St. Pauli: Ceesay A. (Foot Injury) Irvine J. (Foot Injury) Mets K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Augsburg: Fellhauer R. (Concussion) Kade A. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.08.25	Hamburger SV - St. Pauli	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	3:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Eintracht Norderstedt - St. Pauli	0:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	St. Pauli - Verona	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TWTWW
- FC Augsburg
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Augsburg - Greuther Fürth	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
30.08.25	Augsburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
23.08.25	Freiburg - Augsburg	1:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.25	Hallescher - Augsburg	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Augsburg - Sunderland	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
01.02.25	St. Pauli - Augsburg	1:1
15.09.24	Augsburg - St. Pauli	3:1

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