Match Info

MLS

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Q2 Stadium (Austin, TX)

Referee: Badawi M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Austin FC		Atlanta United

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.9	3.75	Watch
	1.93	3.7	3.6
	1.88	4	4	Watch
	1.93	3.94	3.89
	1.88	3.89	3.84	Watch
	1.91	3.7	3.6
	1.91	3.82	3.74	Watch
	1.88	4	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.32)	3.87 ↑ (3.53)	3.8 ↑ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Austin FC
50.2%

Draw
24.7%

Atlanta United
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

26.9%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

27%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Austin FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Austin FC's performance.

Atlanta United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlanta United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Austin FC than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Austin FC that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlanta United than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlanta United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	21.4%	7.1%

Austin FC - Atlanta United Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Austin will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Atlanta will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Austin: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Austin FC will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stuver B. (G) 17. Gallagher J. 5. Svatok O. 18. Cascante J. 29. Guilherme Biro 33. Wolff O. 6. Sanchez I. (C) 14. Sabovic B. 10. Uzuni M. 9. Vazquez B. 11. Bukari O.	1. Guzan B. (C) 47. Edwards M. 24. Cobb N. 3. Williams D. 44. Abram L. 2. Hernandez R. 99. Slisz B. 43. Klich M. 10. Almiron M. 19. Latte Lath E. 59. Miranchuk Al.
Substitutes
32. Burton M. 30. Cleveland S. (G) 20. Dubersarsky N. 19. Fodrey C. 4. Hines-Ike B. 23. Kolmanic Z. 7. Obrian J. 21. Rubio D. 2. Thomas R.	20. Brennan L. 22. Cohen J. (G) 35. Fortune A. 9. Lobjanidze S. 21. Morales E. 70. Mosquera E. 8. Muyumba T. 28. Reilly W. 14. Thiare J.
Coaches
Estevez N.	Deila R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 1 - 0, Vazquez B. ⚽,
56', Latte Lath E. ↓, Thiare J. ↑,
56', Hernandez R. ↓, Fortune A. ↑,
57', Klich M. ↓, Muyumba T. ↑,
59', Fortune A. 🟨,
69', Williams D. ↓, Lobjanidze S. ↑,
79', Wolff O. ↓, Kolmanic Z. ↑,
79', Bukari O. ↓, Obrian J. ↑,
84', Miranchuk Al. ↓, Mosquera E. ↑,
85', Vazquez B. ↓, Fodrey C. ↑,
85', Sabovic B. ↓, Dubersarsky N. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Thiare J. ⚽, Lobjanidze S. (A),
90+3', Uzuni M. ↓, Rubio D. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 14).

Austin has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlanta is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Atlanta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Austin is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Austin: Pereira D. (Hip Injury) Taylor R. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Atlanta: Gregersen S. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Atlanta: Amador P. (Groin Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Austin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Austin FC
MLS
10.05.25	Cincinnati - Austin FC	2:1 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.25	Austin FC - El Paso Locomotive	3:2 ✺
MLS
03.05.25	Austin FC - Minnesota United	0:3 ✺
26.04.25	Houston Dynamo - Austin FC	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Austin FC - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLW
- Atlanta United
MLS
10.05.25	Chicago Fire - Atlanta United	2:1 ✺
03.05.25	Atlanta United - Nashville SC	1:1 ✺
26.04.25	Orlando City - Atlanta United	3:0 ✺
19.04.25	Philadelphia Union - Atlanta United	3:0 ✺
12.04.25	Atlanta United - New England Revolution	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
09.07.22	Atlanta United - Austin FC	0:3

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