What is the expert prediction for Lille vs Olympique Marseille?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Lille vs Olympique Marseille. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Lille vs Olympique Marseille Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, December 05, 2025)

Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 15

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Brisard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport Maximo 360
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Malta	TVM Sport+
Mexico	Caliente TV, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 4
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Lille		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.6	2.9	Watch
	2.38	3.45	2.92
	2.4	3.55	3.05
	2.36	3.53	2.9	Watch
	2.25	3.4	2.9
	2.4	3.67	3.07	Watch
	2.42	3.4	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.59)	3.51 ↑ (3.49)	2.95 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
40.5%

Draw
27.2%

Olympique Marseille
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

27.1%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

27.4%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.1%	34.4%	37.5%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 9 - 30%). Marseille will win (votes: 10 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 36.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19.5% – 53.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Marseille (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ozer B. (G) 12. Meunier T. 3. Ngoy N. 23. Mandi A. 15. Perraud R. 21. Andre B. (C) 6. Bentaleb N. 10. Haraldsson H. 8. Mbappe E. 11. Sahraoui O. 29. Igamane H.	1. Rulli G. (G) 28. Pavard B. 21. Aguerd N. 5. Balerdi L. (C) 22. Weah T. 19. Kondogbia G. 18. Vermeeren A. 33. Emerson 10. Greenwood M. 14. Paixao I. 97. Aubameyang P.
Substitutes
16. Bodart A. (G) 14. Broholm M. 27. Correia F. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M. 9. Giroud O. 38. Goffi A. 26. Gomes A. 18. Mbemba Ch. 17. Mukau N.	50. Bakola D. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 8. Gomes A. 76. Mmadi T. 62. Murillo M. 26. Nadir B. 17. O'Riley M. 34. Vaz R.
Coaches
Genesio B.	De Zerbi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Mbappe E. ⚽, Bentaleb N. (A),
26', Igamane H. ↓, Giroud O. ↑,
26', Vermeeren A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Pavard B. ↓, Bakola D. ↑,
66', Aubameyang P. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,
69', Mbappe E. ↓, Mukau N. ↑,
70', Sahraoui O. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
80', Kondogbia G. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
80', Paixao I. ↓, Mmadi T. ↑,
84', Haraldsson H. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
90:00, Ozer B. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 2.

Recent performances by Lille have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Marseille is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Marseille has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Lille: Alexsandro (Thigh Injury) Bouaddi A. (Red Card) Caillard M. (Elbow Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury) Verdonk C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Marseille: Gouiri A. (Shoulder Injury) Medina F. (Ankle Injury) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Hojbjerg P. (Illness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lille won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:23. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:6. (average 1.6:0.7).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
30.11.25	Le Havre - Lille	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Lille - Dinamo Zagreb	4:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
23.11.25	Lille - Paris FC	4:2 ✺
09.11.25	Strasbourg - Lille	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lille	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWLL
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
29.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
21.11.25	Nice - Olympique Marseille	1:5 ✺
08.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Brest	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Atalanta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
04.05.25	Lille - Olympique Marseille	1:1
Coupe De France
14.01.25	Olympique Marseille - Lille	1:2 penalties
French Ligue 1
14.12.24	Olympique Marseille - Lille	1:1
05.04.24	Lille - Olympique Marseille	3:1
04.11.23	Olympique Marseille - Lille	0:0
20.05.23	Lille - Olympique Marseille	2:1
10.09.22	Olympique Marseille - Lille	2:1

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