Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 14

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Jean Bouin (Paris)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 5
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 PLUS Israel, 5 SPORT Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	Caliente TV, FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
South-america	ESPN 4 South, ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 5
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Paris FC		Auxerre

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.5	4.2	Watch
	1.88	3.55	4.15
	1.93	3.7	4.4
	1.80	3.78	4.19	Watch
	1.9	3.59	4.44	Watch
	1.88	3.5	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.8)	3.6 ↓ (3.78)	4.27 ↑ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris FC
51.1%

Draw
26.5%

Auxerre
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

25%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

22.4%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Auxerre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.7%	10%	13.3%

Paris FC - Auxerre Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Paris FC will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). Auxerre will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paris FC: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris FC will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Nkambadio O. (G) 14. Traore H. 5. Mbow M. 6. Otavio 28. De Smet T. 27. Simon M. 4. Marchetti V. 17. Camara A. 7. Gory A. 10. Kebbal I. (C) 11. Krasso J.	16. Leon D. (C) 14. Mensah G. 27. Sy L. 20. Diomande S. 92. Akpa C. 34. Matondo R. 17. El Azzouzi O. 5. Danois K. 10. Sinayoko L. 9. Mara S. 19. Danny Namaso
Substitutes
13. Cafaro M. 12. Dicko N. 8. Doucet L. 9. Geubbels W. 93. Ikone J. 15. Kolodziejczak T. 20. Lopez J. 2. Ollila T. 35. Trapp K. (G)	7. Casimir J. 40. De Percin T. (G) 36. Devernois T. 43. Diamalunda E. 18. Diousse A. 22. Oppegard F. 23. Osman I. 4. Sierralta F. 41. Zaddy Y.
Coaches
Gilli S.	Pelissier C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
32', 1 - 0, Kebbal I. (Pen),
39', Otavio 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Diomande S. ⚽, Sinayoko L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Danny Namaso 🟨,
61', Gory A. ↓, Doucet L. ↑,
70', Simon M. ↓, Cafaro M. ↑,
71', Mara S. ↓, Osman I. ↑,
79', Camara A. ↓, Ikone J. ↑,
79', Krasso J. ↓, Geubbels W. ↑,
79', De Smet T. ↓, Ollila T. ↑,
81', Ikone J. 🟨,
85', Sinayoko L. ↓, Casimir J. ↑,
85', El Azzouzi O. ↓, Diousse A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paris FC won 1.

Paris FC has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Auxerre has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Paris FC is the team to beat.

There will not play in Auxerre: Buayi-Kiala N. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly L. (Ankle Injury) Senaya M. (Injury) Siwe T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Paris FC: Hamel P. (Injury) Ikone J. (Groin Injury) Sangui N. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Auxerre: Owusu E. (Injury) Sierralta F. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Paris FC won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Paris FC won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.4:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Paris FC - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.47%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris FC
French Ligue 1
23.11.25	Lille - Paris FC	4:2 ✺
07.11.25	Paris FC - Rennes	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Monaco - Paris FC	0:1 ✺
29.10.25	Paris FC - Lyon	3:3 ✺
24.10.25	Paris FC - Nantes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LLWTL
- AJ Auxerre
French Ligue 1
23.11.25	Auxerre - Lyon	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Angers - Auxerre	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Auxerre - Olympique Marseille	0:1 ✺
29.10.25	Strasbourg - Auxerre	3:0 ✺
26.10.25	Auxerre - Le Havre	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
04.05.24	Auxerre - Paris FC	2:0
07.10.23	Paris FC - Auxerre	0:2
01.02.22	Auxerre - Paris FC	1:2
16.08.21	Paris FC - Auxerre	1:1
13.03.21	Auxerre - Paris FC	0:0
21.11.20	Paris FC - Auxerre	0:3
22.11.19	Paris FC - Auxerre	2:0

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