Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 9

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+


	Athletico Paranaense		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.7	7.5	Watch
	1.52	3.7	6
	1.54	3.8	6.4
	1.52	3.94	7.48
	1.53	3.7	6.99	Watch
	1.53	4	6
	1.5	3.7	7.5	Watch
	1.54	3.8	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.52)	3.79 ↓ (4.05)	6.78 ↑ (6.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
61.5%

Draw
24.7%

Athletic Club
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

23.2%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.4%

22.7%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Athletico Paranaense - Athletic Club Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Athletico PR (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mycael (G) 14. Moraes K. 28. Habraao 3. Leo 37. Esquivel L. 5. Felipinho 98. Falcao 8. Giuliano (C) 11. Isaac 70. Renan Peixoto 19. Luiz Fernando	1. Jefferson Luis (G) 2. Douglas Pele 16. Alex Nascimento 4. Sidimar 84. Rodrigo Gelado 5. Diego Fumaca (C) 37. Amorim 10. David Braga 6. Yuri 19. Neto Costa 77. Max
Substitutes
27. Alan Kardec 45. Belezi 4. Figueiredo T. 57. Joao Cruz 61. Leo Derik 42. Mateus Soares (G) 88. Patrick 15. Peralta F. 31. Raul 23. Santos (G) 30. Tevis 10. Zapelli B.	27. Alason Carioca 8. Andrey 20. Caick 70. Eduardo Freire (G) 23. Gustavao 13. Jhonatan Silva 43. Marcelo Ajul 15. Martinez F. 18. Matheus Guilherme 14. Victor G. 52. Wesley Gasolina
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Roger Silva

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Isaac ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', 1 - 0, Renan Peixoto ⚽, Joao Cruz (A),
65', Max ↓, Alason Carioca ↑,
65', David Braga ↓, Wesley Gasolina ↑,
74', Douglas Pele ↓, Andrey ↑,
76', Giuliano ↓, Tevis ↑,
76', Luiz Fernando ↓, Patrick ↑,
76', Matheus Guilherme 🟨,
83', Falcao ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
83', Moraes K. ↓, Belezi ↑,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 15).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Athletico PR may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Athletico PR is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Dudu Kogitzki (Inactive) Leozinho (Inactive) Palacios H. (Inactive)

There will not play in Athletic: Edson Miranda (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletic: Ezequiel (Injury) Matheus Guilherme (Injury) Wesley Gasolina (Inactive)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Copa do Brasil
20.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Brusque	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.25	Vila Nova - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
08.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
04.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo SP	1:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Brusque - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLTLT
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.25	Athletic Club - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2 ✺
12.05.25	Botafogo SP - Athletic Club	0:3 ✺
06.05.25	Athletic Club - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
27.04.25	Athletic Club - Volta Redonda	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Chapecoense - Athletic Club	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWLWL

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