Match Info

ENGLAND: National League South - Round 28

Date: 25 January 2025, Saturday


	Aveley		Farnborough

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	1.98
	3.51	3.39	2.06
	3.48	3.42	2.06
	3.4	3.4	2
	3.41	3.44	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (2.91)	3.39 ↓ (3.54)	2.02 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aveley
27.1%

Draw
27.2%

Farnborough
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

25.8%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

24%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aveley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Farnborough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aveley than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aveley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farnborough than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Farnborough, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Aveley - Farnborough Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Robinson O. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
87', 1 - 1, Semakula H. ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 1, Owen T. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation and 11).

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Aveley could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Farnborough will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Aveley won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:9 (average 1.3:3).

Including matches at home between the teams Aveley won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aveley
English National League South
18.01.25	Truro City - Aveley	2:1 ✺
11.01.25	Aveley - Chesham United	1:1 ✺
01.01.25	Chelmsford City - Aveley	1:0 ✺
26.12.24	Aveley - Hornchurch	1:1 ✺
21.12.24	Bath City - Aveley	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTLTL
- Farnborough
English National League South
21.01.25	Salisbury - Farnborough	0:0 ✺
18.01.25	Farnborough - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:1 ✺
01.01.25	Bath City - Farnborough	1:0 ✺
26.12.24	Farnborough - Hampton & Richmond Borough	0:0 ✺
21.12.24	Maidstone United - Farnborough	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
05.10.24	Farnborough - Aveley	2:0
16.03.24	Farnborough - Aveley	3:1
02.12.23	Aveley - Farnborough	3:4

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