Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group C - Round 9

Date: 13 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi (Avellino)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 255


	Avellino		Casertana

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.5	5
	1.62	3.6	5.5
	1.62	3.55	5.8
	1.72	3.41	5.21	Watch
	1.55	3.5	5.5
	1.6	3.48	5.38	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.8)	3.52 ↑ (3.17)	5.41 ↑ (4.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avellino
56.9%

Draw
26.1%

Casertana
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

28.7%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

28.1%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avellino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Avellino's performance.

Casertana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Avellino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casertana than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Avellino - Casertana Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Avellino will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Avellino: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Iannarilli A. (G) 29. Cancellotti T. 5. Rigione M. (C) 56. Enrici P. 38. Frascatore P. 4. De Cristofaro A. 6. Palmiero L. 24. Sounas D. 7. D'Ausilio M. 10. Russo R. 9. Patierno C.	1. Zanellati A. (G) 70. Mancini S. 4. Kontek I. 13. Bacchetti L. (C) 37. Falasca M. 8. Damian F. 30. Bianchi S. 7. Carretta M. 27. Proia F. 93. Bakayoko A. 90. Asencio R.
Substitutes
51. Arzillo V. 33. Benedetti S. 57. Campanile A. 26. Cionek T. 50. De Michele P. 35. Gori G. 94. Liotti D. 60. Llano Massa M. T. 77. Marson L. (G) 55. Mutanda N. 11. Redan D. 52. Solaro D. 19. Tribuzzi A. 91. Vano M.	19. Collodel R. 18. Deli F. 31. Di Giovanni F. 3. Fabbri A. 44. Gatti R. 21. Iuliano F. 16. Matese M. 32. Paglino S. 12. Pareiko D. (G) 34. Rocca S. 9. Satriano A. 22. Vilardi A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Patierno C. ⚽,
14', Palmiero L. 🟨,
22', 2 - 0, Sounas D. ⚽,
44', Carretta M. 🟨,
45+2', 3 - 0, Mancini S. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Asencio R. ↓, Iuliano F. ↑,
46', Mancini S. ↓, Paglino S. ↑,
46', Bianchi S. ↓, Gatti R. ↑,
49', 4 - 0, Sounas D. ⚽,
54', Palmiero L. ↓, Mutanda N. ↑,
56', De Cristofaro A. 🟨,
57', Bacchetti L. 🟨,
74', Frascatore P. ↓, Liotti D. ↑,
74', Russo R. ↓, Redan D. ↑,
84', 5 - 0, Patierno C. ⚽,
85', Carretta M. ↓, Deli F. ↑,
90+1', Deli F. 🟨,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Avellino won 4.

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Avellino is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Avellino won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16:6 (average 2:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Avellino won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12:4 (average 2.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Avellino
Italian Serie C Group C
07.10.24	Crotone - Avellino	0:4 ✺
29.09.24	Avellino - Foggia	2:1 ✺
24.09.24	Turris - Avellino	0:0 ✺
21.09.24	Avellino - Latina	0:1 ✺
15.09.24	Cavese - Avellino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWTLT
- FC Casertana
Italian Serie C Group C
06.10.24	Casertana - Catania	1:3 ✺
29.09.24	Audace Cerignola - Casertana	0:0 ✺
24.09.24	Casertana - Taranto	2:0 ✺
20.09.24	ACR Messina - Casertana	2:2 ✺
14.09.24	Casertana - Turris	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
19.02.24	Avellino - Casertana	2:1
16.10.23	Casertana - Avellino	0:2
Club Friendly
08.08.22	Avellino - Casertana	1:1
Italian Serie C Group C
21.02.21	Casertana - Avellino	0:2
25.10.20	Avellino - Casertana	3:1
17.11.19	Casertana - Avellino	2:0
Club Friendly
28.07.16	Avellino - Casertana	3:1

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