Match Info

Serie B - Round 7

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi (Avellino)

Referee: Allegretta C. G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox
World	Onefootball


	Avellino		Mantova

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.4	3.7	Watch
	1.87	3.4	4.1
	1.92	3.35	3.8
	2.06	3.45	4
	2.46	2.42	4.02	Watch
	1.94	3.44	3.83	Watch
	1.86	3.5	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.26)	3.28 ↓ (3.41)	3.94 ↑ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avellino
47.1%

Draw
28.9%

Mantova
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

27.5%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

26.7%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avellino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Avellino's performance.

Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mantova might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mantova could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Avellino - Mantova Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Avellino will win (votes: 29 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Avellino: 100% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Avellino (2.93) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Mantova (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Avellino will win (24 of 24 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Avellino (votes: 27 - 96.4%). Mantova (votes: 1 - 3.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Iannarilli A. (G) 29. Cancellotti T. 44. Simic L. 63. Fontanarosa A. 2. Todisco G. 6. Palmiero L. 16. Kumi J. 23. Cagnano A. 94. Insigne R. 32. Lescano F. 14. Biasci T.	1. Festa M. (G) 17. Radaelli N. 6. Bani C. 29. Cella S. 27. Castellini A. 30. Bragantini D. 36. Paoletti F. 21. Trimboli S. 8. Artioli F. 28. Caprini M. 99. Bonfanti N.
Substitutes
21. Armellino M. 39. Besaggio M. 17. Crespi V. 30. Daffara G. (G) 56. Enrici P. 8. Gyabuaa M. 79. Manzi C. 78. Milani A. 20. Palumbo M. 33. Panico G. 10. Russo R. 24. Sounas D.	22. Andrenacci L. (G) 20. Fedel G. 14. Galuppini F. 96. Maggioni T. 37. Majer Z. 9. Mancuso L. 3. Mantovani V. 23. Marras T. 7. Mensah D. 53. Pittino T. 19. Ruocco F. 10. Wieser D.
Coaches
Biancolino R.	Possanzini D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Paoletti F. ↓, Majer Z. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lescano F. ↓, Russo R. ↑,
46', Insigne R. ↓, Besaggio M. ↑,
46', Bragantini D. ↓, Marras T. ↑,
57', Caprini M. 🟨,
63', Caprini M. ↓, Ruocco F. ↑,
63', Bonfanti N. ↓, Mancuso L. ↑,
68', Palmiero L. 🟨,
72', Bani C. 🟨,
73', Bani C. ↓, Mantovani V. ↑,
75', Cagnano A. ↓, Crespi V. ↑,
75', Missori F. ↓, Milani A. ↑,
76', Kumi J. 🟨,
80', Palmiero L. ↓, Palumbo M. ↑,
89', Artioli F. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Avellino is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mantova is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Avellino is the team to beat.

There will not play in Avellino: D'Andrea L. (Knee Injury) De Cristofaro A. (Knee Injury) Favilli A. (Tendon Injury) Patierno C. (Illness) Rigione M. (Muscle Injury) Sounas D. (Inactive) Tutino G. (Ankle Injury)

We predict that Avellino will win today's game, with odds of 1.86.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Avellino
Italian Serie B
30.09.25	Padova - Avellino	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Avellino - Virtus Entella	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Carrarese - Avellino	3:4 ✺
12.09.25	Avellino - Monza	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Modena - Avellino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 TWWWT
- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
30.09.25	Juve Stabia - Mantova	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Mantova - Frosinone	1:5 ✺
20.09.25	Mantova - Modena	1:3 ✺
14.09.25	Virtus Entella - Mantova	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Mantova - Pescara	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLLLW

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