Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 19

Date: 13 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Cumana (Ayacucho)

Referee: Espinoza J. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ayacucho		Cienciano

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.3	1.95	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.05	Watch
	2.92	3.3	2.38	Watch
	3.38	3.34	2.13
				Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.15
	2.98	3.35	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↓ (4.2)	3.3 ↓ (3.5)	2.19 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayacucho
29.1%

Draw
28.3%

Cienciano
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.1%

26.5%

51.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

25.8%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayacucho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ayacucho's performance.

Cienciano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cienciano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ayacucho that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cienciano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

Ayacucho - Cienciano Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Cienciano will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cienciano (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Valencia J. (G) 29. Falconi J. 3. Ganoza M. 22. Bilbao J. 27. Barrios K. 18. Orue D. 16. Vilchez J. 20. Correa Flores C. A. 5. Tamariz A. 77. Lucumi J. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M.	29. Barrios I. (G) 70. Valoyes J. 4. Amondarain M. 3. Gomez A. 22. Neira C. 5. Arias Fierro S. D. 14. Torrejon C. (C) 6. Galeano L. 20. Benites Vargas L. E. 21. Garces C. 11. La Torre D.
Substitutes
26. Aquino H. 25. Ataupillco J. 12. Caro D. 1. Izaguirre P. (G) 14. Loayza G. 15. Ratto P. 10. Rios M. 6. Tuesta J. 17. Villamarin J.	19. Ascues A. 24. Bolado J. (G) 30. Da Silva B. 16. Ibanez P. 17. Noronha O. 2. Ortiz D. 27. Ortiz J. 26. Palomino R. 55. Ramua A.
Coaches
Castellanos S.	Parihuana J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Barrios K. ↓, Villamarin J. ↑,
29', Arias Fierro S. D. ↓, Ramua A. ↑,
32', Gomez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Amondarain M. 🟥,
54', Neira C. ↓, Palomino R. ↑,
57', Bilbao J. ↓, Ataupillco J. ↑,
64', Ramua A. 🟨,
74', Tamariz A. 🟨,
74', Vilchez J. ↓, Rios M. ↑,
74', La Torre D. ↓, Da Silva B. ↑,
74', Benites Vargas L. E. ↓, Noronha O. ↑,
90+2', Valoyes J. 🟨,
90+3', Falconi J. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 0, Rios M. ⚽,
90+5', Villamarin J. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayacucho won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Cienciano might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Ayacucho won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:19. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ayacucho won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
05.07.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Ayacucho	0:1 ✺
27.06.25	Ayacucho - Los Chankas	1:2 ✺
21.06.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Ayacucho	2:1 ✺
15.06.25	Ayacucho - Universitario de Deportes	0:1 ✺
25.05.25	ADT Tarma - Ayacucho	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.3 WLLLW
- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
05.07.25	Cienciano - Sporting Cristal	1:1 ✺
27.06.25	Juan Pablo II College - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
22.06.25	Cienciano - Alianza Atlético	3:2 ✺
13.06.25	Cusco - Cienciano	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.05.25	Atlético Mineiro - Cienciano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
30.07.22	Ayacucho - Cienciano	0:1
04.03.22	Cienciano - Ayacucho	3:1
22.10.21	Ayacucho - Cienciano	1:3
23.04.21	Ayacucho - Cienciano	1:1
29.02.20	Cienciano - Ayacucho	1:4
15.11.15	Cienciano - Ayacucho	1:1
15.07.15	Ayacucho - Cienciano	0:0

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