Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 18

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra (Cutervo)

Referee: Quiroz J. C. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Comerciantes Unidos		Ayacucho

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4
	2.2	3.1	2.9
	1.98	3.4	3.8	Watch
	1.99	3.37	3.74
				Watch
	2.25	3.2	3
	2.04	3.46	3.83	Watch
	2.32	3.3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.14)	3.32 ↑ (3.28)	3.47 ↑ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comerciantes Unidos
44.7%

Draw
28.3%

Ayacucho
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

28.7%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

29.1%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comerciantes Unidos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Ayacucho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comerciantes Unidos than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Comerciantes Unidos - Ayacucho Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Comerciantes Unidos will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Ayacucho will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Ayacucho (2.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Comerciantes Unidos (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Comerciantes Unidos (votes: 1 - 50%). Ayacucho (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Villete A. (G) 27. Sosa B. 25. Guzman W. 31. Aguilar R. 26. Mendez P. 30. Marina J. 6. Paico K. 15. Carpio Ferro M. P. 77. Sandoval R. 9. Sen M. 18. Portugal B.	1. Izaguirre P. (G) 27. Barrios K. 12. Caro D. 3. Ganoza M. 29. Falconi J. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M. 18. Orue D. 16. Vilchez J. 77. Lucumi J. 22. Bilbao J. 8. Ramirez D.
Substitutes
36. Alfaro Martinez G. E. 96. Campos H. 1. Caytuiro F. (G) 5. Duclos F. 12. Garcia L. 11. Lecaros A. 35. Paredes G. 20. Parodi J. 19. Pena K.	26. Aquino H. 25. Ataupillco J. 15. Ratto P. 10. Rios M. 5. Tamariz A. 6. Tuesta J. 23. Valencia J. (G) 17. Villamarin J. 4. Yovera A.
Coaches
Ferreyra D.	Islas L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Marina J. 🟨,
39', Ganoza M. 🟨,
40', Lucumi J. 🟨,
43', Paredes G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Marina J. ↓, Campos H. ↑,
55', 0 - 1, Perez Azambuya E. M. (Pen),
61', Aguilar R. 🟨,
66', Mendez P. ↓, Alfaro Martinez G. E. ↑,
66', Paredes G. ↓, Sosa B. ↑,
66', Carpio Ferro M. P. ↓, Garcia L. ↑,
79', Perez Azambuya E. M. 🟨,
79', Perez Azambuya E. M. ↓, Villamarin J. ↑,
79', Vilchez J. ↓, Tuesta J. ↑,
82', Caro D. ↓, Tamariz A. ↑,
84', Portugal B. ↓, Lecaros A. ↑,
90+3', Barrios K. ↓, Ataupillco J. ↑,
90+9', Ramirez D. ↓, Yovera A. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes Unidos won 5.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Comerciantes Unidos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Comerciantes Unidos will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes Unidos won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 26:16. (average 2.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Comerciantes Unidos won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:3. (average 2.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1
29.06.25	Sporting Cristal - Comerciantes Unidos	2:0 ✺
22.06.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Juan Pablo II College	3:0 ✺
18.06.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
12.06.25	Alianza Atlético - Comerciantes Unidos	3:0 ✺
24.05.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Cusco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWLLL
- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
27.06.25	Ayacucho - Los Chankas	1:2 ✺
21.06.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Ayacucho	2:1 ✺
15.06.25	Ayacucho - Universitario de Deportes	0:1 ✺
25.05.25	ADT Tarma - Ayacucho	0:1 ✺
10.05.25	Ayacucho - Sporting Cristal	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
19.07.23	Comerciantes Unidos - Ayacucho	3:1
23.04.23	Ayacucho - Comerciantes Unidos	2:4
Peruvian Liga 1
01.09.18	Comerciantes Unidos - Ayacucho	Ayacucho awarded
18.05.18	Ayacucho - Comerciantes Unidos	1:2
06.04.18	Ayacucho - Comerciantes Unidos	2:3
17.02.18	Comerciantes Unidos - Ayacucho	2:1
21.08.17	Comerciantes Unidos - Ayacucho	4:0

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