Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Unión Tarma (Tarma)

Referee: Espinoza M. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	ADT Tarma		Ayacucho

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	7.5	Watch
	1.37	4.5	6.25
	1.36	5.1	7.6	Watch
	1.35	5	9.05
	1.36	4.77	8.28	Watch
	1.4	4.5	7
	1.39	5	8.05	Watch
	1.36	5.1	7.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↑ (1.34)	4.87 ↓ (5.08)	7.67 ↓ (8.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ADT Tarma
68.5%

Draw
19.3%

Ayacucho
12.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.6%

18.6%

10.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76%

17.3%

10%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADT Tarma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Ayacucho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for ADT Tarma, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ADT Tarma - Ayacucho Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grados C. (G) 24. Perez A. 66. Fuentes P. 16. Choi G. 3. Narvaez J. 88. Barreto G. 19. Ascues C. 14. Cabello C. 7. Rojas J. 77. Da Luz M. 11. Vidales J.	1. Izaguirre P. (G) 27. Barrios K. 2. Navarro G. 3. Ganoza M. 12. Caro D. 25. Ataupillco J. 18. Orue D. 20. Correa Flores C. A. 77. Lucumi J. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M. 35. Ferreyra K.
Substitutes
6. Bersano F. 25. Hermoza E. (G) 27. Hidalgo A. 23. Montenegro D. 18. Pinto O. 9. Rengifo H. 22. Reyes J. 29. Robles A. 28. Soto J.	80. Medina F. 21. Palomino F. (G) 8. Ramirez D. 15. Ratto P. 10. Rios M. 17. Villamarin J. 4. Yovera A.
Coaches
Rojas L.	Islas L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Fuentes P. ↓, Montenegro D. ↑,
20', 0 - 1, Ganoza M. ⚽, Lucumi J. (A),
23', Perez A. 🟨,
28', Barrios K. 🟨,
31', Ataupillco J. 🟨,
33', Montenegro D. 🟨,
35', Correa Flores C. A. 🟨,
45', Cabello C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Perez A. ↓, Bersano F. ↑,
46', Da Luz M. ↓, Rengifo H. ↑,
46', Ascues C. ↓, Robles A. ↑,
46', Caro D. 🟨,
55', Ferreyra K. ↓, Ramirez D. ↑,
55', Caro D. ↓, Yovera A. ↑,
60', Barrios K. ↓, Medina F. ↑,
68', Perez Azambuya E. M. 🟨,
70', Perez Azambuya E. M. ↓, Villamarin J. ↑,
70', Lucumi J. ↓, Ratto P. ↑,
72', Yovera A. 🟨,
84', Rojas J. ↓, Pinto O. ↑,
85', Choi G. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 19).

ADT has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ayacucho is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

ADT may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, ADT is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in ADT: Desio G. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ayacucho: Valencia J. (Red Card)

There are questionable in ADT: Fernandez A. (Injury) Rojas J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ayacucho: Bilbao J. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, ADT won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, ADT won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
17.05.25	Sporting Cristal - ADT Tarma	2:1 ✺
11.05.25	ADT Tarma - Juan Pablo II College	2:2 ✺
04.05.25	Alianza Atlético - ADT Tarma	2:0 ✺
28.04.25	ADT Tarma - Cusco	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Cajamarca - ADT Tarma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LTLWW
- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
10.05.25	Ayacucho - Sporting Cristal	1:4 ✺
03.05.25	Juan Pablo II College - Ayacucho	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético	0:2 ✺
19.04.25	Cusco - Ayacucho	3:0 ✺
11.04.25	Ayacucho - Cajamarca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
13.08.22	Ayacucho - ADT Tarma	1:2
20.03.22	ADT Tarma - Ayacucho	0:0

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