Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 21 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Lopez P. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Deportivo Garcilaso		Ayacucho

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.5	7	Watch
	1.49	3.8	5.5
				Watch
	1.45	4.2	9.75
				Watch
	1.53	3.7	6.5
	1.43	4.44	6.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.62)	4.13 ↑ (4)	7.13 ↑ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Garcilaso
64%

Draw
22.8%

Ayacucho
13.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

23.6%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

22.9%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Garcilaso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Garcilaso's performance.

Ayacucho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportivo Garcilaso - Ayacucho Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Garcilaso (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Deportivo Garcilaso (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Deportivo Garcilaso will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Garcilaso (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zubczuk P. (G) 55. Canales E. 14. Gariglio I. 13. Lojas J. (C) 18. Nunez O. 16. Beltran C. 11. Erustes P. 25. Paucar E. 10. Sandoval K. 9. Ugarriza A. 19. Naya E.	23. Valencia J. (C) 29. Falconi J. 3. Ganoza M. 25. Ataupillco J. 18. Orue D. 27. Barrios K. 8. Ramirez D. 20. Correa Flores C. A. 12. Caro D. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M. 77. Lucumi J.
Substitutes
31. Barbieri J. (G) 7. Bazan J. 26. Celi Y. 6. Garrafa Tapia I. A. 23. Moreno X. 29. Ramirez M. (G) 2. Salazar A. 28. Valer J. F. 33. Villacorta S.	26. Aquino H. 22. Bilbao J. 1. Izaguirre P. (G) 80. Medina F. 15. Ratto P. 10. Rios M. 5. Tamariz A. 16. Vilchez J. 17. Villamarin J.
Coaches
Duro G.	Islas L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', Ataupillco J. 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Perez Azambuya E. M. ⚽, Lucumi J. (A),
28', Caro D. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Ugarriza A. (Pen),
45+11', Canales E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Ataupillco J. ↓, Bilbao J. ↑,
56', Caro D. ↓, Tamariz A. ↑,
61', 2 - 1, Valencia J. (Own goal),
64', Ramirez D. ↓, Rios M. ↑,
74', Naya E. ↓, Celi Y. ↑,
85', Sandoval K. ↓, Moreno X. ↑,
86', Ugarriza A. 🟨,
86', Beltran C. 🟨,
90+1', Paucar E. ↓, Bazan J. ↑,
90+1', Ganoza M. ↓, Medina F. ↑,
90+1', Ugarriza A. ↓, Valer J. F. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 17).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

In this match, Deportivo Garcilaso is the obvious favorite.

There are questionable in Ayacucho: Bilbao J. (Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
15.06.25	Sporting Cristal - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:2 ✺
25.05.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Juan Pablo II College	4:0 ✺
16.05.25	Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cusco	1:3 ✺
03.05.25	Cajamarca - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLLL
- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
15.06.25	Ayacucho - Universitario de Deportes	0:1 ✺
25.05.25	ADT Tarma - Ayacucho	0:1 ✺
10.05.25	Ayacucho - Sporting Cristal	1:4 ✺
03.05.25	Juan Pablo II College - Ayacucho	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 LWLTL

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